Warm and settled weather as Torch makes its way to Worcester

Torch bearer Andrew Evans-Fisher in front of Worcester Cathedral.

The weather will be dry and warm with sunny spells as the Torch Relay makes its way to Worcester on Thursday.

Temperatures could reach as high as 25 ºC as the sun breaks its way through the cloud. This week’s settled weather is good news for the Olympic torch’s journey from Maisemore to Worcester on Thursday. If you are planning to head out to follow the Olympic Torch then you can check one of our local forecasts available for locations along its route. In fact the Met Office provides local forecasts for over 5,000 locations across the UK.

Georgia Smith, head of VisitWorcester and event lead for the city, said: “The Olympic Torch Relay is Worcester’s moment to shine – it would be great if the sun obliges too. But whatever the weather, I know that it will be an amazing day – a once-in-a-lifetime event that everyone can take part in and feel the magic and excitement of the London 2012 Olympics.”

Forecasts for the Olympic Torch Relay are available on our website as well as on mobile phones and on our iPhone and Android Apps meaning you are never far from a local, detailed weather forecast.

Forecasts for sporting venues at the Olympic and Paralympic Games will be available as the Games draw closer. The Met Office are providing weather forecasts to LOCOG as well as local and national government for the Torch Relay, Olympic and Paralympic Games to support event organisers, competing athletes and visitors and spectators alike.

Are you holding a Diamond Jubilee event? Add it to our map

Are you holding a Jubilee Big Lunch event? We’d like to include your event on our Diamond Jubilee weather map on our website.

To submit your event, please add your event on our Facebook poll. Once you’ve added your event, ask your friends to vote for your event. The ten events with the most votes will be added to our event page and map. You have until 4 pm Friday 18 May to add your event to our poll.

How often does it snow in May?

Reports of snow showers in parts of the UK over the past 24 hours and the prospect of more on high ground tonight may seem a little out of context at this time of year, but is it unusual?

Snowfall at this time of year isn’t an annual event, so it’s not completely normal, but it’s fair to say it’s not completely unusual either. We last saw snow in May all the way back in… 2011, just last year, and we also saw more snow in 2010.

If we look back through the records dating back to 1910, the snowiest May on record was most likely in 1979 when 342 weather observation sites reported snow on 2 May.

This snowy spell lasted through the whole of the first week of that month. The light snow showers we’ve seen this May seem slight in comparison.

Besides these wintry showers, much has been made in the media of the ‘cold spell’ which is ‘gripping’ the UK this month and the rather unsettled weather we’ve had.

While many people associate May with the start of summer weather, it can actually be a month of very mixed and variable conditions – with wide contrasts possible.

This is borne out by the piece of old weather lore:

 

Ne’er cast a clout,

Until May is out.

 

While this rhyme is a bit ambiguous and open to interpretation, one view is that this means don’t throw out your winter clothing (from clout – which means thread or cloth) until May is over – presumably because you can expect virtually any type of weather at this time of year.

So, unsettled and cool weather – even with snow or frosts – isn’t out of context in May despite perceptions that it’s typically a warm and sunny time of year.

This week really sums that up. We are expecting some night-time minimums which are below average – isolated areas in Scotland and northern England could get down to freezing or just below.

During the day, however, temperatures in places could get to 15C or above in parts of southern England – and it may even feel quite warm when the Sun is out, particularly in spots sheltered from the wind.

There will also be some rainfall this week, but many places will see sunny and dry spells too.

So, don’t throw away your summer wear yet – nor your winter woolies.

 

What are climate models?

A key way of understanding our climate and making projections about how it may change in the future is to use climate models.

These are essentially simulations of the Earth’s climate system. They are made up of millions of lines of computer code which represent the physical processes which govern our atmosphere and oceans.

Supercomputers then run the code using observations of modern day climate, with the models able to recreate the past (hindcasting) or give projections of the future (forecasting).

Looking at the past is important for understanding historical changes and influences on climate, and it also allows scientists to gauge how accurate the models are (by comparing model output to reality).

Looking at the future enables researchers to see how things might change given various different scenarios – such as changing levels of greenhouse gases.

The Met Office uses models to look at many different timescales and to study different aspects of the Earth’s climate system.

You can find out more about how climate models work in our YouTube video.

 

Guest blog: UV index forecast, helping you to keep safe in the sun.

As the sun is set to make a reappearance this weekend,  Charlotte Fionda of the Karen Clifford Skin Cancer Charity writes this guest blog:

Last week was Sun Awareness Week, even though the sun did not appear to be aware of it in many places. This weekend, however, the sun is set to return and most of us will want to get out and make the most of the good weather. It is important to remember that although it may not feel that warm despite the sunshine, the sun is very strong at this time of year.

The Met Office provides UV index forecasts on its website so that everyone can keep up to date with how strong the sun is going to be. These forecasts take account of whether it will be cloudy, or not, when calculating a maximum UV index value for different times during the day.

The Karen Clifford Skin Cancer Charity ‘Skcin’ took over sponsorship on these UV index forecasts in April. Skcin is the UK’s only national skin cancer specific charity. Our key aims are raising awareness of the UK’s most common cancer, promoting prevention, early detection and sun safety via Safe Sun initiatives, as well as campaigning for a cultural and educational change.

There is a clear link to weather when it comes to skin cancer and thus a clear link to the work of the Met Office and the UV index forecast. This is why we are proud to be associated with the UV forecast and to promote understanding of the dangers of over exposure to UV and the importance of being aware of UV levels, so people can adequately protect themselves and hopefully prevent skin cancer in the long run.

If you are out in the sun this weekend, even if it’s not that warm, please remember to take care and avoid the harmful effects of the sun.

For further details on what to do to stay sun safe please visit the Met Office web page.

Skcin have also recently set up an award scheme for primary schools to encourage all schools to adopt sun safe policy and teaching.

Long to rain over us

Weather often makes front page news but today it’s the weather forecaster who has garnered the headlines – as the paper’s focus on the Prince of Wales’ star turn as a presenter.

Prince Charles and the Duchess of Cornwall both tried their hand at delivering the Met Office weather forecast on the BBC during a tour of BBC Scotland’s Glasgow headquarters yesterday.

While they couldn’t do anything about the wet, windy and rather cold weather – they certainly did an accomplished job at getting the message across.

At one point, the Prince said: “But a cold day everywhere with temperatures of just 8C and a brisk northerly wind. Thank God it isn’t a bank holiday.”

The forecast has been a big hit on the internet, as the forecast has been viewed nearly 100,000 times on YouTube.

It has also created interest around the world, as numerous National Met Services have contacted the Met Office to compliment the Prince’s forecasting skills – suggesting he might be a good new recruit!

This is not the first time the Prince has had a close-up view of the Met Office’s world leading forecast science, as he paid a visit to our Exeter HQ in 2009

As someone with a keen interest in weather and climate change, he used the visit to find out more about our cutting edge capabilities in forecasting and our pioneering climate research. Perhaps that visit was good preparation for his performance yesterday!

At the time of his visit to the Met Office Prince Charles said: “But for somebody like myself who spent at least a little bit of time in the past, when I was serving in the Royal Navy and learning to fly in the Royal Air Force, as you can imagine meteorology was quite an important part of this particular exercise.

“Having understood a little bit about what weather patterns are all about, to me it’s particularly interesting to see what you do here [at the Met Office].”

The Met Office is a leading provider of weather services for the UK’s media industries – providing forecasting solutions for the BBC, ITV, STV and UTV.

We also run TV weather presenter training so others can hone their skills before going in front of the cameras.

Weather lab in the sky

The work of scientists from the UK academic community and the Met Office onboard the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) research aircraft is covered on The BBC and Channel 4 today.

The BBC’s Science Editor David Shukman joined yesterday’s flight to probe the developing depression to the southwest of Britain. He explains how the scientists on the DIAMET project use specialist instruments to measure the winds, temperature and humidity and cloud particles to help improve the forecasting of storms.

His article about the flight includes a short video  and it was also covered on the Radio 4 Today programme this morning  (1:44:45 – 1:48:00). You can see his full report on the 6 o’clock and 10 o’clock News on BBC 1 today.

Tom Clark Channel 4’s Science Editor was also on the flight and his report will be on C4 News at roughly 7.30pm this evening.

The DIAMET project also featured in the media last December when the FAAM research aircraft flew into a violent storm affecting Scotland. The Scottish Sun carried an exclusive two page spread about the flight.

You can find out more about the ‘Weather Lab in the Sky’ on our video