As per our blog article published yesterday, the Met Office continues to closely monitor the Sun following a recent surge in its activity related to a sunspot (identified by the number 1748).
This morning saw a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which is an eruption of electromagnetically charged gas (plasma), from the sunspot. The CME is due to catch Earth with a glancing blow which is not expected to cause any significant impacts.
There remains a low risk through to the end of next week that we could see a CME from 1748 which is aimed more directly at Earth, but after that the risk is expected to diminish.
We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates if there are any changes.
The Met Office will be keeping a close eye on the Sun over the coming days after a recent surge in its activity.
It’s fairly common for eruptions from the Sun (often called “space weather”) to occur, and these are usually associated with sunspots – dark areas of intense activity on the surface of the star.
The eruptions from these spots come in several different forms, but if the events are of sufficient strength and directed towards the Earth, they can all cause impacts on our modern-day technology. Impacts range from minor interference to communication networks to temporary disruption to electricity supply, satellites and GPS navigation.
Over the past few days a sunspot, identified by the number 1748, has been the cause of many solar eruptions which have already caused some minor impacts.
NASA image showing one of the recent solar flares ejecting from sunspot 1748
Some of the eruptions have been in the form of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), which are plumes of electromagnetically charged gas (plasma). These have been focused away from Earth so far, but, as the sun rotates, there is a chance the sunspot could emit a CME in our direction.
Mark Gibbs, Head of Space Weather at the Met Office, said: “If a strong CME were to be directed at Earth it could have some disruptive impacts, but at the moment the probability of this happening appears to be low.
“We’ll be keeping a close watch on the situation, particularly from Friday evening onwards, to advise on anything that could cause disruption to help the UK minimise any potential impacts. Hopefully this event will pass without the majority of people noticing, but it’s important we monitor the risk.”
This monitors the Sun’s activity and then predicts how these changes are likely to affect the Earth’s environment. The Met Office Hazard Centre currently has forecasters trained in space weather forecasting, and awareness is being raised across different industry sectors to make them aware of their potential vulnerability and how we can help lessen the risks.
In the event of a CME, space weather monitoring can provide anything from 17 hours to 3 days advance warning – allowing vital time to prepare.
Solar activity is currently expected to be high as we are near the peak of an 11-year solar cycle, which sees the Sun’s activity increase and decrease over the period.
You can see more about space weather forecasting in our Youtube video.
Following on from the second coldest March on record, April was another cool month, with temperatures below average everywhere. The provisional UK mean temperature was 6.3 °C, which is 1.1 °C below the 1981-2010 average, very similar to 2012 but otherwise the coldest April for the UK since 1989. Forecaster Helen talks through the weather we’ve seen this month in our video.
This visible satellite and rainfall radar image shows the three areas of low pressure affecting the UK today.
We can see three low pressure areas showing up as swirls of cloud to the north of Scotland near Shetland, north of Northern Ireland and off south-west England. The centre of the lows show up as cloud free areas.
During a yellow warning for rainfall there may be some minor traffic delays due to slower traffic and outdoor events may be disrupted or cancelled. There may be localised flooding of fields, car parks and recreational land.
When an amber warning is issued: Be prepared.
An amber warning indicates the need to be prepared for some disruption of daily routines and travel only if well prepared as the journey may take longer. Some flooding of homes, businesses and transport connections is possible. Utility services (gas, electricity and water) may also be affected and protecting property will be needed (for example moving possessions upstairs and using sandbags).
A red warning means action must be taken.
It is essential to follow advice from authorities under all circumstances and expect significant disruption. Only take journeys if absolutely essential and carry emergency food and clothing. Red warnings mean there could be widespread flooding of property and severe disruption to travel. There may be some loss of utilities (gas, electricity and water). There may be possible risk to life and the advice of the emergency services needs to be followed.
There have been one or two stories in the press today saying we’re in for another washout summer, which would rightly inspire collective misery across the country.
However, it’s a far too early to be writing off any chance of a decent summer season – after all, it doesn’t officially start (for us meteorologists) for more than two weeks (on 1 June).
It appears the news stories are borne out of the current position of the jet stream, a band of fast moving westerly winds high up in the atmosphere. But why is this important?
A quick Jet stream explainer
The jet stream tends to guide the generally wet and windy weather systems which come in off the Atlantic. So, if it’s over us or just to the south, we tend to get a lot of wet and windy weather – which is what we expect through winter.
If the jet is to the north of us, it guides that changeable weather to the north to give us more settled conditions – which is what we expect in the summer.
(You can read a bit more about the jet stream, how it impacted our weather last year, and any potential connections to climate change in a blog story we wrote last year).
What’s going on now?
Right now the jet stream is sitting to the south of the country and it is influencing the unsettled weather we are seeing at the moment.
Forecast chart showing position of the jet stream at midday on 13 May 2013
It’s fair to say that this is roughly the position it was in for extended periods during the exceptionally wet weather that we saw last year, particularly in June.
Crucially, however, the jet stream does move around quite a bit and it can change its track significantly in just a few days. So the current position of the jet stream does not mean that it’s stuck in that position.
Looking ahead
Much like our weather, it’s a huge challenge to predict the exact track of the jet stream more than five or six days ahead, so there’s still a great deal to play for in the outlook for our summer.
In short, it’s far too early to write-off summer 2013 based on the current position of the jet stream.
April to June each year usually sees the transition from the southern to the northern hemisphere tropical cyclone season.
During this time it is possible to see cyclones in both hemispheres simultaneously. Furthermore, cyclone ‘twins’ sometimes develop at approximately the same longitude either side of the equator.
For the first time since 2009 cyclone twins have developed in the Indian Ocean.
This was caused by a strong burst of westerly winds along the equator about a week ago. A large mass of clouds located in the same area initially moved eastwards with the wind.
The clouds furthest from the equator then started to curl northwards in the northern hemisphere and southwards in the southern hemisphere due to the earth’s rotation. Over time these cloud masses have consolidated and started to rotate to produce twin tropical storms.
The southern hemisphere storm has been named Jamala and is currently not expected to affect any land areas.
The northern hemisphere storm has been named Mahasen and there is a stronger likelihood of this making landfall next week on one of the Bay of Bengal’s coastal regions.
The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance.
You can keep up to date with tropical cyclones around the world on our website or follow us on Twitter.
You can see the latest image of Tropical Storms Jamala and Mahasen at:
The early May Bank Holiday Monday was fine with warm sunshine across much of the England and Wales and temperatures hitting the 20′s Celsius in many parts. However, as expected, sea fog did make for a misty day around some of the coast and Scotland and Northern Ireland saw a good deal of cloud with some rain in the northwest.
Here are the highest temperatures recorded so far today at Met Office observing stations:
Heathrow 22.0 C
Donna Nook 21.9 C
St James Park 21.7 C
Holbeach 21.6 C
Hull East Park 21.4 C
Northolt 21.3 C
Kew Gardens 21.3 C
Cambridge 21.2 C
Conningsby 21.1C
Sheffield 20.9C
Pershore 20.9 C
Gravesend 20.8 C
The highest temperature recorded so far this year was 23.1 C at Faversham on 25 April, and temperatures tomorrow may be on a par with that in some parts of central and eastern England.
After the wettest April on record in 2012, provisional full-month Met Office figures show this April has been slightly drier than average in the UK.
Rainfall throughout the UK was 64 mm this year, compared to the 1981-2010 average of 72.7 mm. That’s considerably less than the 128 mm we saw last year.
There were big regional differences in April rainfall this year. Scotland saw 121.2 mm of rain which is above the 91.1 mm average and Northern Ireland saw 75.2mm, almost spot on the 75.0 mm average.
However, both England and Wales saw well below average rainfall. Wales had 50.3mm, compared to an average of 89.3mm, and England saw 30.4mm, compared to an average of 58.7 mm.
The month was characterised by generally cold and dry weather, following on from the theme set in March. Despite this, April registered as only slightly colder than average with a mean UK temperature of 6.3 °C, which is 1.1 °C below the 7.4 °C long-term average.
This is the same mean temperature as recorded in April 2012. To find a colder April than the last two years, you have to go back to 1989 – which saw a mean temperature of 5.5 °C.
Scotland saw the coldest temperatures compared to country specific averages, with a mean temperature of 4.8 °C, which is 1.3 °C below average – and is the same temperature as recorded in 1998.
The warmest day of the month was 25 April at Faversham in Kent when the temperature recorded was 23.1°C.
In terms of sunshine, Scotland was sunnier than the rest of the UK with hours of sunshine totalling 170.9, followed by Northern Ireland with 168.0, England at 167.7 and Wales at 162.7 hours.
This compares with only 127.9 hours of sunshine in April last year throughout the UK. The sunniest April in the last 10 years was 2007 with 203.5 hours.
There have been some reports in the press that dry weather in May will bring a return of drought conditions.
Here Victoria Williams, Drought Advisor at the Environment Agency, explains what the risks currently are.
Every week we measure water resources in England to assess how dry the soils are and how much rain they can soak up, the amount of water flowing in rivers, stored below ground in aquifers and above ground in reservoirs, and the outlook for the coming months.
Our latest water situation report details a positive outlook for water resources in the coming months. 2012 was the second wettest year on record, and despite a relatively dry start to 2013, river levels are normal or above normal at the majority of our monitoring sites. We also look ahead by modelling how rivers and groundwaters may respond to different future rainfall patterns over the summer. The results shows a positive picture even if rainfall is below average and point to the risk of drought this summer being no greater than average.
However it is still as important as ever to use water wisely. If the weather does turn hot and dry there could be localised impacts on rivers and the environment. Modelling suggests that a changing climate could reduce some river flows by up to 80 per cent during the summer in the next 40 years – increasing the challenge of ensuring there is enough water for people, business, farmers and the environment.
This is the official blog of the Met Office news team, intended to provide journalists and bloggers with the latest weather, climate science and business news and information from the Met Office.
The blog will post latest news releases and related content, news diary and information supporting news stories already in the media.
