Discussing the UK’s recent ‘unusual seasons’

14 06 2013

There have been some media stories this morning about a meeting due to be held next week at the Met Office to discuss the recent run of unusual seasons here in the UK.

This will draw together some experts from across UK academia to discuss what happened in three specific seasons and examine some of the potential causes behind conditions.

Workshops of this kind are held on a regular basis on a great deal of issues across weather and climate science.

Collaboration and partnership working is also an integral part of the Met Office’s work at the forefront of research on weather and climate.

Stephen Belcher, Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre and chair of next week’s workshop, said: “We have seen a run of unusual seasons in the UK and Northern Europe, such as the cold winter of 2010, last year’s wet weather and the cold spring this year.

“This may be nothing more than a run of natural variability, but there may be other factors impacting our weather. For example, there is emerging research which suggests there is a link between declining Arctic sea ice and European climate – but exactly how this process might work, and how important it may be among a host of other factors, remains unclear.

“The Met Office is running a workshop to bring together climate experts from across the UK to look at these unusual seasons, the possible causes behind them, and how we can learn more about those drivers of our weather. This will continue the UK’s world class research effort to understand more about the drivers of monthly to seasonal climate across Europe.”


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6 responses

14 06 2013
nuwurld

Dear Met, some good news there, but remember that the IPCC and climate scientists have never set out to come to terms with natural variation. So many bodies of study tell us that the climate has varied in the past. Common sense tells us that without profound understanding of ‘normal variation’ and its drivers any estimate of man’s influence is undermined.

Many proxies tell us that the Earth has always followed solar variation and its cyclic behaviour. The current solar decline being THE reason why recent changes in weather are dissimilar to those we have become accustomed to.

The ‘greenhouse effect’ and any model using ‘trapping’ of heat by ‘greenhouse gases’ is doomed to failure. Gravitationally bound atmospheres simply do not work that way. As meteorologists, you know that the vertical thermal profile or ‘lapse’ is set by kinetic and potential exchange. All molecules with inter atmospheric or atmosphere to space vibrational modes REDUCE the surface temperature by reducing the gravitationally set ‘lapse rate’. Remember non radiative molecules like nitrogen and oxygen have near zero emissivity and are therefore incapable of loosing energy to space. They are true ‘trappers’ of energy.

The Arctic sea ice is deep cycling and soon it will become apparent that this is due to a cooling signal (inactive Sun) acting upon a warm ocean and its thermal inertia.

The jet stream and the size of the polar cell is already showing this ‘precursor’ of things to come.

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is in phase with the strong 60 year cycle of solar variation driven by Jupiter/Saturn synodic.

The PDO is negative phase and so it will remain for the next 30 years.

Winter is coming. The current warm period is over. CO2 is the ‘building block’ of life and has ‘zero’ warming effect on this or any other planet.

It will be interesting to see what you decide.

14 06 2013
jdey123

The Arctic sea ice extent had a record gain after last summer’s record loss and has been in the normal range since the start of March, yet the UK’s still been cold. That’s that theory dismissed, and I don’t spend all day doing this as a job. Shouldn’t you be waiting 30 years before you have your conference? Or is the grant money amount to be withdrawn?

16 06 2013
Jeff Jacobs

The earth is at the start of a cooling period so called “mini ice age” which happens approx every 360 years and there is nothing that man can do to stop this. But the met office can play an important The earth is at the start of a cooling period so called “mini ice age” which happens approx every 360 years and there is nothing that man can do to stop this. But the met office can play an important roll in warning people, and preparing for the ice, what worries me is if we were to get several volcanoes erupting at the same time this would tip the balance, and this would be a disaster for the planet. roll in warning people, and preparing for the ice, what worries me is if we were to get several volcanoes erupting at the same time this would tip the balance, and this would be a disaster for the planet.

18 06 2013
Martin Lack

Given the statistical analysis of historical data for the last 5 decades, ‘Perception of climate change’, by James Hansen, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy published in PNAS volume 37, pp E2415–E2423 last year, can you please tell me why so many of the scientists meeting in Exeter today still seem to be so reluctant to admit that an increased frequency of more extreme weather – anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) – is an inevitable consequence of a warmer atmosphere with more moisture in it more of the time?

Clearly, no single event can be attributed to ACD with 100% certainty but, as the above-referenced paper has demonstrated – in addition to an overall shift towards getting warmer – extreme events are becoming more frequent. Therefore, as per the abstract of the above-referenced paper:

…we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small.

Surely the time for equivocation on this subject has long since passed?

18 06 2013
jdey123

In my 44 years on the planet, I’ve yet to experience an ‘extreme weather’ event. Weather in the UK is as exciting as a nice cup of tea

25 06 2013
nuwurld

Martin, given that there is no ‘control’ experiment running parallel to natural climate variation. Scaremongers like Hanson don’t have the foggiest idea. Or maybe they do, but have another agenda!

As you said “no single event can be attributed to ACD”. You have your answer right there. Plus other evidence shows ‘no’ statistical increase in extreme events globally.

Reality check, 288K, 288.8K, absolute in 100 years. Plot a graph. The Earth is showing amazing insensitivity to any forcing. Look at the ‘Younger Dryas’, several degrees in a decade or less. All without man.

The world isn’t warming.

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