The jet stream and why it’s too early to write-off summer

There have been one or two stories in the press today saying we’re in for another washout summer, which would rightly inspire collective misery across the country.

However, it’s a far too early to be writing off any chance of a decent summer season – after all, it doesn’t officially start (for us meteorologists) for more than two weeks (on 1 June).

It appears the news stories are borne out of the current position of the jet stream, a band of fast moving westerly winds high up in the atmosphere. But why is this important?

A quick Jet stream explainer

The jet stream tends to guide the generally wet and windy weather systems which come in off the Atlantic. So, if it’s over us or just to the south, we tend to get a lot of wet and windy weather – which is what we expect through winter.

If the jet is to the north of us, it guides that changeable weather to the north to give us more settled conditions – which is what we expect in the summer.

(You can read a bit more about the jet stream, how it impacted our weather last year, and any potential connections to climate change in a blog story we wrote last year).

What’s going on now?

Right now the jet stream is sitting to the south of the country and it is influencing the unsettled weather we are seeing at the moment.

Forecast chart showing position of the jet stream at midday on 13 May 2013

It’s fair to say that this is roughly the position it was in for extended periods during the exceptionally wet weather that we saw last year, particularly in June.

Crucially, however, the jet stream does move around quite a bit and it can change its track significantly in just a few days. So the current position of the jet stream does not mean that it’s stuck in that position.

Looking ahead

Much like our weather, it’s a huge challenge to predict the exact track of the jet stream more than five or six days ahead, so there’s still a great deal to play for in the outlook for our summer.

In short, it’s far too early to write-off summer 2013 based on the current position of the jet stream.

To get the best information on what to expect you can see the latest detailed forecasts out to 5-days on our website, as well as a general view of what we expect out to 30 days.

You can find out more about the jet stream in our YouTube video.

Cold Weather Alert Service extended to help support

With cold weather forecast across the UK as we head through the Easter weekend and into the start of April, the Cold Weather Alert Service, which usually finishes at the end of March, has been extended for an additional two weeks.

The Cold Weather Plan, which has run successfully since 2011, has been developed by the Department of Health, Met Office and Health Protection Agency, and supported by AgeUK.

The purpose of the Cold Weather Plan is to help raise awareness of the dangers of cold weather on health with both the general public and professionals alike. It spells out what preparations both individuals and organisations could make to reduce health risks and includes specific measures to protect at-risk groups.

The Cold Weather Plan has been supported again this winter by the Met Office Cold Weather Alert Service, which notifies frontline staff across the health, social care, community and voluntary sectors, and AgeUK, as well as the general public across England, when cold weather could impact on our health.

The continued period of cold weather has brought substantial media focus. By extending the service we are ensuring that accurate and reliable forecasts and alerts are sent to frontline staff and carers in our health services. This will help them to look after those who are more vulnerable and ensure that they stay well and healthy during this prolonged spell of cold weather.

You can keep up to date with the latest forecasts from the Met Office on our website.

Latest snow depths and wind speeds – 24 March

As forecast, we have seen some very wintry weather over the last few days. Here are some figures showing where the most snow has fallen.

Wittering in Cambridgeshire saw the deepest snow, with 24 cm recorded at 9 am this morning.

Many areas also saw strong winds, with a gust of 61 mph recorded at Shap, Cumbria and 48 mph recorded at Machrihanish, Argyll . These winds have caused even deeper drifts of snow in some areas.

Snow depths at 9 am 24 March

TIME	SITE NAME	AREA	ELEVATION (m)	SNOW DEPTH (cm)
09:00	WITTERING	CAMBRIDGESHIRE	73	24
09:00	WATTISHAM	SUFFOLK	89	20
09:00	NOTTINGHAM, WATNALL	NOTTINGHAMSHIRE	117	19
09:00	SHAWBURY	SHROPSHIRE	72	14
09:00	ANDREWSFIELD	ESSEX	87	12
09:00	CRANWELL	LINCOLNSHIRE	63	10
09:00	LEEK, THORNCLIFFE	STAFFORDSHIRE	298	7
09:00	ABOYNE	ABERDEENSHIRE	140	7
09:00	HIGH WYCOMBE	BUCKINGHAMSHIRE	204	7
09:00	SENNYBRIDGE	POWYS	307	7
09:00	SHAP	CUMBRIA	252	7
09:00	COLESHILL	WARWICKSHIRE	96	6
09:00	HAWARDEN AIRPORT	CLYWD	11	6

Recent rainfall totals

Rain has continued to cause disruption across parts of the UK, with overnight rain adding to significant totals over the past few days.

The wettest place in the UK (and Scotland) since the heavy rainfall began on 19^th December to 6am this morning has been Tyndrum in Perthshire, with 155.0 mm of rain.

Cardinham near Bodmin, Cornwall, is the wettest place in England with 128.8 mm of rain and the wettest place in Wales has been Mumbles Head, West Glamorgan, with 107.0 mm of rain.

Ballypatrick Forest in Antrim has been the wettest place in Northern Ireland, with 89.0 mm of rain.

Some areas have exceeded their full-month December average since the 19^th – such as Plymouth, Devon, which has seen 128.8mm of rain compared to a December average of 118.8 mm.

Below is a table of the wettest places in the UK from 0000 HRS on 19th December to 0600 HRS today, 24th December. The final column shows the monthly average for December, clearly showing some places have exceeded their monthly totals:

SITE NAME	AREA	PRECIP AMOUNT(mm)	DEC AVG(mm)
TYNDRUM	PERTHSHIRE	155.0	300.9
CARDINHAM	CORNWALL	128.8	155.1
PLYMOUTH	DEVON	127.4	118.8
LISCOMBE	SOMERSET	125.2	171.2
OKEHAMPTON	DEVON	115.0	184.2
MUMBLES HEAD	WEST GLAMORGAN	107.0	110.3
TREDEGAR	GWENT	102.2	169.0
CARDIFF, BUTE PARK	SOUTH GLAMORGAN	97.0	125.3
SENNYBRIDGE NO 2	POWYS	96.2	179.5
ST ATHAN	SOUTH GLAMORGAN	93.2	122.4
DYCE	ABERDEENSHIRE	92.4	76.1
CARTERHOUSE	ROXBURGHSHIRE	92.4	132.0
CRAIBSTONE	ABERDEENSHIRE	92.0	79.8
BALLYPATRICK FOREST	ANTRIM	89.0	133.9

There is more unsettled weather to come this week, so for the latest information keep up to date with our forecasts and warnings.

Heavy rain in the west but very warm in the south east

The UK’s weather will see marked contrasts over the next few days – with heavy rain in the west today and very warm weather in the south east.

Forecasters at the Met Office have issued severe weather warnings for the rain across parts of western Britain today.

Rainfall amounts could reach 60 mm or more in parts of Wales and northern England, accompanied by strong winds. This could cause some disruption in places. The rain will ease during the early hours of Saturday morning.

Met Office radar image from 17 August 2012

In the South East of England, it will be much drier and will become oppressively hot as warm and humid air spreads up from continental Europe.

Temperatures are expected to rise into the high 20s Celsius today and over the weekend, and perhaps even the low 30s Celsius in parts of Kent and East Anglia on Sunday.

It remains to be seen whether the temperature will rise above the hottest seen so far this year, with 30.7 °C at St James’s Park in London on 25 July.

Temperatures on 17 August 2012

While it will be mainly dry in the South East, there will be some cloud around and any sunshine will be quite hazy with fog lingering along some coasts. There may even be a few thundery showers later on Sunday.

Met Office Chief Forecaster Martin Young said: “While it will be hot in the South East, we’re not expecting wall-to-wall sunshine and it will feel quite humid and oppressive over the weekend. As we head into next week, south westerly winds will push that humid air away to bring fresher conditions, and showers to north west Britain.”

For the latest information, keep up to date with our online online forecasts and warnings.

Weather forecasts for the Olympic Games

The Met Office is providing weather forecasts for all Olympic venues during the Games and beyond. As part of the services provided for London 2012, we have installed additional weather observation equipment and developed enhanced forecasting capability to support our staff.

During the Olympic and Paralympic games the Met Office will also be showcasing some cutting-edge weather techniques and technology in its forecasting, as well as providing additional services for the public. To add specialist knowledge and expertise, the Met Office will have 12 forecasters on site across the Olympic venues throughout the games.

For easy access to the latest forecast for each sport and Olympic venue, all the links you need are below.

Sports
Archery	Cycling – Mountain bike	Marathon swimming
Athletics	Cycling – Road	Rowing
Beach Volleyball	Equestrian	Sailing
Canoe Slalom	Football	Shooting
Canoe Sprint	Hockey	Tennis
Cycling – BMX	Modern Pentathlon	Triathlon

Locations
Olympic Park	North Greenwich Arena	Horse Guards Parade
Lords Cricket Ground	ExCel centre	Lee Valley White Water Centre
Wembley Arena	Eton Dorney	Hadleigh Farm, Essex
The Mall	Box Hill	Hampton Court Palace
City of Coventry Stadium	Hampden Park, Glasgow	Millennium Stadium
Old Trafford	St James’ Park, Newcastle	Hyde Park
Weymouth & Portland	Royal Artillery Barracks	Wimbledon

If you’re lucky enough to be attending an Olympic or Paralympic event, you can keep up to date with the local forecast while you’re there on our mobile applications for iPhone and Android, or on our mobile website.

Win the chance to present your own weather forecast

To celebrate the jubilee we’re offering the chance to present and record your own Met Office weather forecast. To be in with a chance of winning just answer a simple question on our Facebook page. For a clue, have a look at our jubilee infographic below.

There’s also weather forecasts for jubilee events on our website.

Guest blog: UV index forecast, helping you to keep safe in the sun.

As the sun is set to make a reappearance this weekend,  Charlotte Fionda of the Karen Clifford Skin Cancer Charity writes this guest blog:

Last week was Sun Awareness Week, even though the sun did not appear to be aware of it in many places. This weekend, however, the sun is set to return and most of us will want to get out and make the most of the good weather. It is important to remember that although it may not feel that warm despite the sunshine, the sun is very strong at this time of year.

The Met Office provides UV index forecasts on its website so that everyone can keep up to date with how strong the sun is going to be. These forecasts take account of whether it will be cloudy, or not, when calculating a maximum UV index value for different times during the day.

The Karen Clifford Skin Cancer Charity ‘Skcin’ took over sponsorship on these UV index forecasts in April. Skcin is the UK’s only national skin cancer specific charity. Our key aims are raising awareness of the UK’s most common cancer, promoting prevention, early detection and sun safety via Safe Sun initiatives, as well as campaigning for a cultural and educational change.

There is a clear link to weather when it comes to skin cancer and thus a clear link to the work of the Met Office and the UV index forecast. This is why we are proud to be associated with the UV forecast and to promote understanding of the dangers of over exposure to UV and the importance of being aware of UV levels, so people can adequately protect themselves and hopefully prevent skin cancer in the long run.

If you are out in the sun this weekend, even if it’s not that warm, please remember to take care and avoid the harmful effects of the sun.

For further details on what to do to stay sun safe please visit the Met Office web page.

Skcin have also recently set up an award scheme for primary schools to encourage all schools to adopt sun safe policy and teaching.

Long to rain over us

Weather often makes front page news but today it’s the weather forecaster who has garnered the headlines – as the paper’s focus on the Prince of Wales’ star turn as a presenter.

Prince Charles and the Duchess of Cornwall both tried their hand at delivering the Met Office weather forecast on the BBC during a tour of BBC Scotland’s Glasgow headquarters yesterday.

While they couldn’t do anything about the wet, windy and rather cold weather – they certainly did an accomplished job at getting the message across.

At one point, the Prince said: “But a cold day everywhere with temperatures of just 8C and a brisk northerly wind. Thank God it isn’t a bank holiday.”

The forecast has been a big hit on the internet, as the forecast has been viewed nearly 100,000 times on YouTube.

It has also created interest around the world, as numerous National Met Services have contacted the Met Office to compliment the Prince’s forecasting skills – suggesting he might be a good new recruit!

This is not the first time the Prince has had a close-up view of the Met Office’s world leading forecast science, as he paid a visit to our Exeter HQ in 2009

As someone with a keen interest in weather and climate change, he used the visit to find out more about our cutting edge capabilities in forecasting and our pioneering climate research. Perhaps that visit was good preparation for his performance yesterday!

At the time of his visit to the Met Office Prince Charles said: “But for somebody like myself who spent at least a little bit of time in the past, when I was serving in the Royal Navy and learning to fly in the Royal Air Force, as you can imagine meteorology was quite an important part of this particular exercise.

“Having understood a little bit about what weather patterns are all about, to me it’s particularly interesting to see what you do here [at the Met Office].”

The Met Office is a leading provider of weather services for the UK’s media industries – providing forecasting solutions for the BBC, ITV, STV and UTV.

We also run TV weather presenter training so others can hone their skills before going in front of the cameras.

Back to ‘battleground Britain’ for weekend’s weather

Cold weather is set to continue this week, with temperatures getting progressively colder through to Friday when they are expected to drop as low as -10 °C in some places.

Despite the cold, snow is not a big feature in the forecast as the majority of the UK will see dry and bright conditions. There is a risk of some light and scattered snow showers in some eastern coastal areas on Wednesday and Thursday, but any accumulations will be light and patchy.

The reason for the cold weather is a high pressure sitting over Scandinavia, allowing cold air from eastern Europe to push in over the UK.

But, as we head into the weekend, this weather pattern is set to come under threat as a front of milder air and rain tries to push in from the Atlantic to the west.

Britain will be at the centre of a battle for supremacy between these two competing systems. It’s likely that the mild and wet Atlantic front will grind to a halt as it comes up against the blocking high sitting over Europe, but the uncertainty focuses on exactly where it will stop.

You can see this uncertainty in our forecast temperature range for the next few days, which shows the range of temperatures we could see. As we get to Saturday, the potential range increases significantly – as we could see cold conditions persist or milder conditions take over.

Either way, there is a risk that we may see some snow over the weekend as the rain in the Atlantic weather front collides with the cold air sitting over the country.

Due to the high amount of uncertainty, it’s difficult to give any detail at the moment – but we should have a clearer picture in the coming days. For the latest information, stay up to date with our latest forecasts and warnings.