12 February 2014 – Storm Statistics

13 02 2014

The UK saw severe weather conditions throughout the course of Wednesday 12 February 2014 and as forecast the strongest winds hit the Welsh and Northwestern coast. Below you can see the highest gusts of wind and rainfall totals recorded at Met Office observing sites on Thursday 12 February 2014.

Maximum gust speeds:

Site Area Elevation (m) Max gust speed (mph)
ABERDARON GWYNEDD 95 108
MUMBLES HEAD WEST GLAMORGAN 43 96
WIGHT: NEEDLES OLD BATTERY ISLE OF WIGHT 80 96
LAKE VYRNWY POWYS 360 96
CAPEL CURIG NO 3 GWYNEDD 216 93
HIGH BRADFIELD SOUTH YORKSHIRE 395 92
PEMBREY SANDS DYFED 3 89
ABERPORTH DYFED 133 87
LOFTUS CLEVELAND 158 85
BERRY HEAD DEVON 58 85

Rainfall totals:

Site Area Rainfall (mm)
SHAP CUMBRIA 46
BAINBRIDGE NORTH YORKSHIRE 41
BALLYPATRICK FOREST ANTRIM 39
CAPEL CURIG NO 3 GWYNEDD 37.4
BANAGHER, CAUGH HILL LONDONDERRY 35.8
BALA GWYNEDD 32.8
ALTNAHINCH FILTERS ANTRIM 32.4
KESWICK CUMBRIA 29.6
PATELEY BRIDGE, RAVENS NEST NORTH YORKSHIRE 27.4
TREDEGAR, BRYN BACH PARK GWENT 26.8

The unsettled weather will continue over the next 48 hours with a system bringing heavy rain on Friday 14 February, however the latter part of the weekend should bring drier and brighter weather for many. Everyone is advised to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and National Severe Weather Warnings and find out what to do in severe weather.





Wind and rainfall data 29 to 30 December 2013

30 12 2013

As forecast gales and heavy rain are again affecting the UK. Below you can see the highest gusts of wind and rainfal totals recorded at Met Office observing sites from 6pm 29 December and 8am 30 December.

Maximum gust speeds:

Site Area Elevation (m) Max gust speed (mph)
CAPEL CURIG     GWYNEDD          216 77
BERRY HEAD                      DEVON            58 75
SCILLY: ST MARYS AIRPORT        ISLES OF SCILLY  31 71
PLYMOUTH, MOUNTBATTEN           DEVON            50 71
WIGHT: NEEDLES OLD BATTERY      ISLE OF WIGHT    80 70
CULDROSE                        CORNWALL         76 66
MILFORD HAVEN DYFED            44 61
NORTH WYKE                      DEVON            177 61
EDINBURGH, BLACKFORD HILL       MIDLOTHIAN       134 60
CARDINHAM, BODMIN               CORNWALL         200 59

Rainfall totals:

Site Area Rainfall (mm)
MURLOUGH                        DOWN               54.4
THREAVE                         KIRKCUDBRIGHTSHIRE 52.2
WHITECHURCH                     DYFED              47.4
ESKDALEMUIR                     DUMFRIESSHIRE      42.4
KESWICK                         CUMBRIA            41.8
DUNDRENNAN                      KIRKCUDBRIGHTSHIRE 41.4
GLASGOW, BISHOPTON              RENFREWSHIRE       40.4
TREDEGAR, BRYN BACH PARK  GWENT              37.2
ST BEES HEAD        CUMBRIA            36.4
BLENCATHRA                      CUMBRIA            35

The unsettled weather will continue through the rest of the week and everyone is advised to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and National Severe Weather Warnings and find out what to do in severe weather.





Wind and rainfall data 27 December 2013

27 12 2013

As forecast, a deep area of low pressure developed over the Atlantic Ocean in the early hours of Friday morning bringing with it a further spell of wet and very windy weather across the UK as it tracked northeastwards, crossing northwest Scotland.

Below you can see the highest gusts of wind and rainfall totals recorded at Met Office observing sites from midnight to 2.30pm on 27 December.

Maximum gust speeds:

Site Area Elevation (m) Max gust speed (mph)
Aberdaron Gwynedd 95 102
Capel Curig Gwynedd 216 87
Mumbles Head West Glamorgan 43 85
St Bees Head Cumbria 124 85
Inverbervie Kincardineshire 134 81
Valley Gwynedd 10 81
Lake Vyrnwy Powys 360 78
Mona Anglesey 60 78
Needles Old Battery Isle of Wight 80 78
Dundrennan Kirkcudbrightshire 113 77
Pembry Sands Dyfed 3 76

Rainfall totals:

Site Area Rainfall (mm)
Tulloch Bridge Inverness-shire 38
Tyndrum Perthshire 37.8
Charterhouse Roxburghshire 37.8
Kiedler Castle Northumberland 33.2
Achnagart Ross and Cromarty 32.8
Redesdale Camp Northumberland 28.6
Cluanie Inn Ross and Cromarty 26.2
Eskdalemuir Dumfriesshire 24.2
Dalwhinnie Inverness-shire 24.2
Newton Rigg Cumbria 22
Banagher, Caugh Hill Londonderry 19.4

Winds will slowly ease from tonight and we are expecting a brighter and less windy interlude over the course of Saturday and for most of Sunday with overnight frosts and sunny spells and a wintry mix of showers.

Another active atlantic frontal system is expected to swing eastwards across the country on Sunday night and Monday morning. A combination of strobng winds and moist air has the   potential to give locally significant amounts of rain which could cause the risk of further flooding.  The wind and rain are expected to clear eastward on Monday morning.

During this period of unsettled weather, people are advised to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and National Severe Weather Warnings and find out what to do in severe weather so they can plan ahead for the weather in store and make the most of the festive season. We would also encourage you to stay up to date with the latest news on flooding by checking the Environment Agency’s website for the latest flood alerts and warnings.

 





Our change in the weather and how the jet stream is driving it

13 12 2013

After a quiet spell of weather courtesy of a slow moving area of high pressure, we are now entering an unsettled period as a series of Atlantic depressions are expected to pass close to the northwest of Britain during the next week.

High pressure has now moved away and is settled over Europe and a powerful jet stream is developing over the Atlantic which will be the main driving force behind this spell of unsettled weather.

What is the jet stream?

The jet stream is a band of fast moving westerly winds high up in the atmosphere which circle around the pole in the northern hemisphere. It can feature winds of up to 200 knots (230 mph) or more, and these winds tend to guide wet and windy weather systems which come in off the Atlantic.

The jet moves around a fair bit and its position can have a big impact on weather here in the UK depending on where it is.

If the jet is over the UK or just to the south, we tend to get a lot of wet and windy conditions as it brings weather systems straight to us. If the jet is to the north of us, it guides that changeable weather away to the north to leave the UK with more settled conditions.

What’s the jet stream doing now?

Unsurprisingly given the outlook for the next week, with a succession of Atlantic depressions passing by to the northwest of Scotland, the jet is positioned to the northwest of the UK too.

As you can see from the picture below, the jet currently swoops east from Canada – swinging northeast over the Atlantic towards the UK.

Forecast position of jet stream at midday Saturday 14 December 2013

Forecast position of jet stream at midday Saturday 14 December 2013

Closer to the ground very cold air is also streaming south from Canada and meeting warm air moving north from the Caribbean. It is where these two air masses meet under the jet stream that powerful Atlantic depressions form and are blown across the ocean towards our shores.

It is these depressions that bring a significant risk of severe gales and heavy rain affecting at least the northwest of the UK at times.

What’s the weather outlook?

Currently, Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for wind across some northwestern and northern areas for the weekend. Gusts of 60-70 mph are likely with a risk of gusts to 80 mph or more across exposed parts of northwest Scotland.

However, at this stage there remains uncertainty regarding the extent of the strongest winds and these warnings will be updated as the weather develops over the weekend.

Looking ahead, while we expect further depressions to develop it is not possible to say exactly how vigorous they may be or pinpoint where they will be in a week’s time. This means it is too early to say which areas will experience the strongest winds and heaviest rain, however there are indications that  areas further to the south of the UK may be affected at times.

You can stay up to date with what to expect with our detailed forecasts out to 5-days and our weather warnings, as well as a general view of what we expect out to 30 days and find out what to do in severe weather

You can find out more about the jet stream in our YouTube video.

 





Cold snap expected

3 12 2013

The UK is going to see a very short, sharp, cold snap.  From Wednesday night (4th Dec) into Thursday morning (5th Dec) Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland will see some strong winds, while Scotland will see some wintry showers and snow.  However temperatures will return to normal as we head through the weekend, and be more in line with what should be expected for December.

A rapidly deepening Atlantic depression is expected to move in an easterly direction to the north of Scotland bringing westerly gales, with gusts of 60 to 70 mph extending southwards across northern and some central parts of the UK on Wednesday night and Thursday.  Northern Scotland could see gusts of 80mph, and potentially 90mph for a time.

Because of this the Met Office has issued a Yellow Severe Weather Warning for strong winds. The public should be aware of possible disruption to travel, especially across Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland and Northern England.

The winds are expected to veer northerly and bring the colder arctic air southwards across northern areas before easing into Friday. The winds could exacerbate high tides and may increase the risk of coastal flooding in the Northern and Western Isles and along the East Coast of England.

A Yellow warning for snow is also in place. It runs from 6am Thursday to 12 noon on Friday, covering the northern half of Scotland, snow showers are expected to be most frequent across the Northern Isles, the North Highlands and northern Aberdeenshire.  Low laying areas could see 2 – 5cms of snow and higher altitudes 10 – 20cms. In addition the strong winds could lead to some drifting of snow and possibly blizzard conditions on higher ground.  Icy conditions may also develop on some roads across Scotland on Thursday night and Friday morning.

This winter storm is not expected to be as powerful as those in January 2012 and December 2011

This is expected to be a short-lived cold snap, with temperatures quickly recovering to near normal over the weekend.

Our video explains what to do during a Yellow warning for wind. You can also download a weather warnings widget for your website.





Stormy weather in the Mediterranean

15 11 2013

The central and western Mediterranean will experience very unsettled conditions through the weekend and next week.

Very heavy rain is expected to affect the northeast of Spain, southern France, the Balearic Isles, Corsica, Sardinia, Italy and the Adriatic facing Balkan nations as the very unsettled conditions move slowly east through the region.

Rainfall totals could be as high as 250mm in places, with a risk of up to 200mm in 24 hours. The average rainfall for November in this region is between 50mm and 100mm.

The rain will be associated with thunderstorms which could also produce hailstorms, very strong gusty winds and the possibility of tornadoes in a few places.

Storms developing over the western Mediterranean

Storms developing over the western Mediterranean

In addition to the rain, very strong winds are expected through the central and western Mediterranean, with widespread gales and a risk of storm force winds for a time. This will lead to rough seas that could pose a threat to shipping in the region.

There is also the risk of strong or gale force southeasterly winds affecting the Adriatic during Tuesday and Wednesday next week. These strong winds, combined with very heavy rainfall across the Venice region over the next few days could bring the risk of flooding in Venice.





Last night’s highest wind speeds

25 11 2012

As well as being wet we had some strong winds overnight Saturday into Sunday. Below are some of the highest gusts of wind recorded at Met Office reporting stations:

Station     Maximum gust
St Catherines Point, Isle of Wight 69 mph
Isle of Portland, Dorset 69 mph
Needles Old Battery, Isle of Wight 67 mph
Solent, Hampshire 64 mph
Weybourne, Norfolk 61 mph
Langdon Bay, Kent 61 mph
Shoreham Airport, West Sussex 60 mph
Berry Head, Devon 59 mph
High Bradfield, South Yorkshire 56 mph
Wattisham, Suffolk 56 mph

 

 





Another wet and windy June weekend

15 06 2012

It has been reported that this weekend’s weather is a once-in-50 year occurrence. In reality, last week’s weather was much more significant with winds recorded up to 84 mph and rainfall of 127 mm in parts of Wales. Although we are in for some wet and windy weather for the next couple of days, by Sunday and for the start of the new working week the weather looks set to be quieter with more sunshine, fewer showers, lighter winds and a warmer feel.

We have seen some more wet and windy weather this week, with heavy and persistent rain affecting many areas last night. However, rainfall totals and wind speeds have not been as severe as they were this time last week, when we saw disruption in west Wales and, later, south-east England.

Satellite image 15 June 2012 showing wet and windy weather over the UK.

The current warnings in place for Wales, the Midlands, northern England and Northern Ireland may seem to last for a long time as they are out for a 48 hour period. However, as Met Office Severe Weather Warnings are based on the impacts of the weather, it is important to ensure the public are aware of how long the worst of the weather will last. The longest warning issued by the Met Office was for the very cold snap in the winter of 2010/2011, where much of the UK was blanketed in yellow warnings for Ice untreated roads and pavements. These warnings were in place for as many as five days in a row.





Is this stormy weather unusual for June?

8 06 2012

We’ve seen some particularly stormy weather across parts of the UK in the last 24 hours as heavy rain and strong winds have brought disruption particularly across the south of the UK.

The strongest winds were recorded in the early hours of Friday morning where the Needles on the Isle of Wight recorded gusts of 82 mph. Otherwise the strongest winds were across South West England with gusts around 60 to 70 mph.

UK MAX GUST SPEED 7TH TO 8TH JUNE 2012

 
 

DATE/TIME

SITE NAME

MAX GUST SPEED MILES PER HOUR

 
08/06/2012 05:00 WIGHT: NEEDLES OLDBATTERY 82  
07/06/2012 21:00 MUMBLES HEAD              67  
07/06/2012 16:00 PLYMOUTH, MOUNTBATTEN     62  
07/06/2012 15:00 CULDROSE                  60  
07/06/2012 16:00 SCILLY: ST MARYS AIRPORT  58  
08/06/2012 06:00 ISLE OFPORTLAND 58  
08/06/2012 07:00 AVONMOUTH       58  

UK RAINFALL 7TH TO 8TH JUNE 2012

 
 

SITE NAME

PRECIP        AMOUNT ( MM)

 
TREDEGAR, BRYN BACH PARK 53.4  
USK 49.4  
DUNKESWELL AERODROME           45.6  
OKEHAMPTON 42.4  
LISCOMBE                       42.0  
CARDIFF,BUTEPARK             38.6  
SENNYBRIDGE           38.4  
MUMBLES HEAD                   37.6  
GLENANNE NO 2                  35.4  
KILLOWEN                       34.6  

Whilst this type of weather may seem unseasonable for early summer you only have to take a look through the Met Office observations records to see that stormy weather in the summer is not all that unusual.

The most comparable storm we have seen recently was only in 2010. The 15th July saw a complex area of low pressure over the UK bring wet and windy weather across South Wales and South West England. The highest gusts recorded were 84 mph at Aberdaron in North Wales. Elsewhere, winds gusted to between 60 and 70 mph widely across the south west of the UK.

Before this, the 23rd June 2004 saw another area of low pressure bring stormy weather across the UK. The strength of the winds during this storm were very similar once again with the strongest winds being seen at the Needles on the Isle of Wight where gusts of 84 mph, whilst gusts of 60 to 70 mph were recorded across South West England and South Wales.

You can get the latest weather forecast and weather warnings on the Met Office website





Communicating uncertain forecasts

15 12 2011

This has been a challenging week for the Met Office. As early as last weekend our forecasters identified the potential for some very severe weather to affect the UK at the end of this week. Our forecasting systems had identified a possible area of significant development, which if this were to happen would result in a rapidly deepening, vigorous low pressure system running across the UK bringing with it storm force winds and the potential for widespread disruption to travel as well as the possibility for structural damage and uprooted trees.

Although we were quite sure this low would cross the UK at the end of the week, there was also the potential it may not develop and consequently cross to the south of the UK and instead of stormy winds, bring the risk of heavy rain and snow fall.

And here is where the challenge began.  When the weather is not feeling too predictable how do we make sure we give sufficient warning to people, when the impact of such weather could be so high but the probability of it happening is relatively low?

Right from the beginning of the week our forecasters and advisers have briefed local and national governments and resilience communities on the risks associated with the developing weather situation so that they are fully aware of the potential for this storm. We worked hard to show the range of uncertainty in the predictability of the weather and then honed in on the detail as it became clearer through the week.  This is what the Met Office does best and we have had some very positive feedback.

Our television forecasters at the BBC and ITV, have kept the public right up to date with the latest details of the forecast from the Met Office. The BBC forecast went as far as showing alternative possible forecasts on Tuesday evening highlighting the possible impacts the weather may bring at the end of the week.  These forecasts have been extremely well received by those who saw them and, along with a range of videos on the Met Office website with our Chief Forecasters have kept everyone well-informed on what could be expected.

Our latest forecasts show that the low will track to the south of the UK, with the strongest winds confined to the English Channel and across the near continent. The Met Office has been liaising with MeteoFrance, our counterparts in France, on the severe weather now expected there.

Having said that, it will still be windy along parts of the south coast and our attention for the UK turns to the risk of heavy rain and snow. Warnings have been issued to the public and the resilience community with the potential for heavy rain in southern most counties of England and snow in parts of Wales, the Midland and southern and southeast England through Friday morning.

We continue to show in our forecasts the most likely outcome as well as and what the weather might be like if the low were to push a little further north. Some may say this is just “sitting on the fence” but what this actually shows is how challenging it is to forecast the weather is the UK, and how good forecasts and targeted information can allow people to make the right decisions based on the best information when it really matters.








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