How will ex-Hurricane Cristobal affect the UK’s weather next week?

27 08 2014

The third tropical storm in the North Atlantic, Cristobal, has been making some headlines about its potential positive impact on us here in the UK – so what’s actually happening?

Cristobal is currently categorised as a hurricane and is currently between Bermuda and northeast Florida in the western Atlantic.

The storm is forecast to move north-east across the Atlantic over the coming days, changing to an ex-hurricane as it moves away from the warmer waters where it formed.

However, unlike ex-Hurricane Bertha which moved straight to the UK and brought strong winds and heavy rain to much of the British Isles, ex-Hurricane Cristobal is set on a very different track.

Instead it is forecast to move towards Iceland, staying well away from the UK as you can see from the forecast pressure chart below.

Forecast pressure chart for 1pm on Sunday 31 August shows ex-Cristobal heading towards Iceland.

Forecast pressure chart for 1pm on Sunday 31 August shows ex-Cristobal heading towards Iceland.

As Cristobal tracks to the north-west of the UK it could bring stronger winds across northwestern parts of Scotland for a time and there will also be some rain moving across the UK on Sunday into Monday.

It will have a longer lasting and more positive impact on our weather, however, as the track of the storm will result in an area of high pressure building further to the south and over the UK.

This high pressure will be maintained through next week as the jet stream moves to the north of the UK, bringing settled conditions across the country.

At this time of the year, high pressure generally brings dry and fine weather with some spells of sunshine, and that’s what we expect to see from around Tuesday next week.

With high pressure, daytime temperatures could reach the low to mid 20’s Celsius in places. This warmth will be especially noticeable following the cool conditions of late.

This spell of warm weather, however, doesn’t fit the definition of an Indian Summer – which you can read about on our website.





What is an ‘Indian summer’?

2 09 2013

After a warm, dry, sunny summer, the fine weather is continuing this week with temperature expected to reach 28 to 29 °C in the southeast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Many media reports are calling this an ‘Indian summer’, however according to the Met Office’s Meteorological Glossary, it’s a little too early in the year. An Indian summer is defined as a warm, calm spell of weather occurring after the first frost in autumn, especially in October and November.

William R Deedler, Weather Historian at the United States National Weather Service, describes it as “any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or even early November”.

The origins of the term Indian summer are uncertain, but several writers suggest it may be have been based on the warm, hazy conditions in autumn when native American Indians chose to hunt. The earliest record of the use of the term is in America at the end of the 18th century. Although William R Deedler also refers to a reference by a French man, John de Crevecoeur, in 1778:

“Sometimes the rain is followed by an interval of calm and warmth which is called the Indian Summer; its characteristics are a tranquil atmosphere and general smokiness. Up to this epoch the approaches of winter are doubtful; it arrives about the middle of November, although snows and brief freezes often occur long before that date.”

The term was first used in the British Isles at the beginning of the 19th century, but there is no statistical evidence to show that such a warm spell tends to recur each year. The warmest recorded temperatures in the UK in October and November are 29.9 °C on 1 October 2011, in Kent, and 21.1 °C on 2 November 1938, in Essex and Suffolk.

For the latest weather forecast go to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather





Turning colder this weekend

22 10 2012

There have been many references in the media to the UK having an Indian summer this week, with temperatures expected to reach 20 °C. However, as forecast by the Met Office many of us woke up today to rather grey, misty and drizzly skies and although temperatures are well above average for the time of year, it certainly doesn’t look or feel summery outside for most of us. We have also seen widespread mist and fog overnight across England and Wales, which the Met Office warned for over the weekend, and further foggy conditions are expected for the next couple of nights.

This morning's satellite image

Visible satellite image from 0900 22 October 2012

So are we going to see any sunshine at all this week? Well, yes, the cloud should break in some places, and we may even see temperatures rise to the high teens along the south coast of England at times, but these temperatures will be short lived.

For most of us it will be the end of the week before the sunshine returns and when it does the weather will be far from warm.

By Friday, much colder air from the Arctic will spread across the UK, bringing drier and clearer weather but much lower temperatures. In fact, daytime highs will struggle to reach double figures by the weekend and there may even be a few wintry showers across north-eastern parts of the UK. It will be cold and frosty overnight too and for many of us this will be the first cold snap of the season.

In this video, Deputy Chief Forecaster Baden Hall explains exactly what we can expect over the next few days.

The latest information about the weather and warnings can be found on the Met Office website, iPhone and Android apps and on twitter. Cold weather can also have an impact on people’s health and you can find out more on the Met Office’s Cold weather and health web pages.





What has brought the warm autumn weather to the UK?

27 09 2011

Over the next few days we are expecting a spell of very warm weather for this time of year across much of England and Wales and even parts of Scotland too. The reason why we are seeing this unseasonable warm spell is due to an area of high pressure which has developed across much of central Europe, centred on Germany and Poland.

This draws up very warm air from a long way south, from parts of France and Spain. That comes across a dry continent removing most of the moisture out of the air. As a result we see very little in the way of cloud with blue skies and plenty of sunshine. As a result the sunshine warms the ground and the ground warms the air so we see high temperatures for this time of the year.

In the video below Paul Gundersen, Met Office Chief Forecaster provides more details about this warm spell, how long it will last and whether this really is an ‘Indian Summer’.





What is an ‘Indian summer’?

26 09 2011

After a cooler than average summer, a spell of settled weather is expected later this week, with temperatures up to 27 °C possible in some areas from mid week.

Many media reports are calling this settled spell an ‘Indian summer’, however according to the Met Office’s Meteorological Glossary, it’s a little too early in the year. An Indian summer is defined as a warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November.

William R Deedler, Weather Historian at the United States National Weather Service, describes it as “any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or even early November”.

The origins of the term Indian summer are uncertain, but several writers suggest it may be have been based on the warm, hazy conditions in autumn when native American Indians chose to hunt. The earliest record of the use of the term is in America at the end of the 18th century. Although William R Deedler also refers to a reference by a French man, John de Crevecoeur, in 1778:

“Sometimes the rain is followed by an interval of calm and warmth which is called the Indian Summer; its characteristics are a tranquil atmosphere and general smokiness. Up to this epoch the approaches of winter are doubtful; it arrives about the middle of November, although snows and brief freezes often occur long before that date.”

The term was first used in the British Isles at the beginning of the 19th century, but there is no statistical evidence to show that such a warm spell tends to recur each year. The warmest recorded temperatures in the UK in October and November are 29.4°C on 1 October 1985, in Cambridgeshire, and 21.1°C on 2 November 1938, in Essex and Suffolk.

For the latest weather forecast go to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather








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