Severe Tropical Storm Rammasun makes landfall in the Philippines

15 07 2014

A severe tropical storm is bringing damaging winds and very high rainfall totals to the Philippines over the coming days as it heads over the island chain.

Severe Tropical Storm Rammasun (also known locally as Typhoon Glenda) has already made landfall over the largest island, Luzon, and is expected to track westward towards the capital, Manila.

It has winds of about 90 mph and gusts of up to 115 mph are forecast, but these could ease slightly as the storm moves inland.

Rammasun will also bring heavy rainfall, with up to 400mm of rain possible over the next two to three days – that’s about a third of the UK’s average rainfall for a whole year.

Legazpi in the south eastern part of Luzon had already seen 181mm of rain in just six hours early on Tuesday – this is more than twice as much as the UK would expect in the whole month of July.

Satellite image of Rammasun from 7am (UK time) this morning. Courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory.

Satellite image of Rammasun from earlier today. Courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory.

The rainfall could cause flooding and landslides, with the largest impact possibly reserved to the populous Manila itself (Greater Metro Manila Area).

A storm surge of up to 1 to 1.5 metres is also expected, coinciding with waves of 3 to 5 metres and spring tides. This could also add to the risk of coastal flooding as the storm passes through.

This could be the strongest tropical storm to affect the Philippines since Milenyo (also known as Typhoon Xangsane) hit the area in 2006.

The Met Office has been working in partnership with PAGASA, the Filipino national forecaster, to provide high resolution forecast modeling for the region. This can help to provide more detailed guidance and warnings on the potential impacts of Rammasun, helping the region prepare so disruption can be minimised.

There are currently no other tropical storms in either the Pacific or the North Atlantic.

Official warnings of west Pacific tropical storms are produced by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA).

The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance.

Met Office StormTracker provides a mapped picture of tropical cyclones around the globe with access to track history and six-day forecast tracks for current tropical cyclones from the Met Office global forecast model and latest observed cloud cover and sea surface temperature.

We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Cyclone Phailin and more Pacific Typhoons

14 10 2013

As per forecasts discussed in our blog last week, Cyclone Phailin struck the east coast of India over the weekend with winds estimated at near 130 mph.

It brought a strong storm surge along the coast and more than 230 mm (9 inches) of rain was recorded as the cyclone passed.

The cyclone was of a similar strength to one which struck just a little further up the coast in 1999, which claimed more than 10,000 lives.

Excellent forecasts for Phailin, combined with well executed warning and evacuation procedures, meant the loss of life was much less this time around.

Phailin became a tropical storm a little more than three days before landfall, but computer models were able to give far greater warning than this.

Medium range prediction models suggested a higher risk of cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal a full nine days before Cyclone Phailin struck.

At six days ahead, shorter range models were predicting that the north-eastern coast of India could be under threat, although the timing was not certain at that stage.

Four days ahead, computer models were able to pinpoint the location and timing of landfall to a high degree of accuracy – all before the storm was strong enough to be named.

Cyclone Phailin originated from a disturbance in the far west Pacific basin and was one of a series of tropical storms seen in this region recently.

Stitched image for 0600-0700 HRS on Saturday, 12 October 2013. Phailin is on the left, Nari in the centre, and Wutip on the right. Images from CIMSS http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Stitched image for 0600-0700 HRS (GMT) on Saturday, 12 October 2013. Phailin is on the left, Nari in the centre, and Wipha on the right. Images from CIMSS http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Nine storms have developed in the west Pacific in the last month, including Typhoons Usagi and Fitow which struck China, Typhoon Wutip which struck Vietnam, and Typhoon Danas which caused heavy rain in South Korea and Japan.

More recently Typhoon Nari crossed the Philippines on Friday and is about to strike Vietnam. Typhoon Wipha may cause disruption in southern Japan and it seems likely another typhoon will develop later this week.

Despite this recent activity, in 2013 the northern hemisphere as a whole has still only had about 60% of the expected activity for this point in the season and regions such at the Atlantic have only seen about 30% of normal activity.

Northern hemisphere activity tends to diminish through November as the southern hemisphere season begins.

Official forecasts of Indian Ocean tropical storms are provided by the Indian Meteorological Department. Official warnings of west Pacific tropical storms are produced by the Japanese Meteological Agency (JMA).

From Tuesday 15th October a graphical display of Met Office forecast tracks of active tropical storms will be available from our web pages. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Typhoon Roke brings heavy rain and strong winds to Japan

21 09 2011

Typhoon Roke made landfall at about 0600 UTC 21 September near Hamamatsu on the south coast of Japan. Winds were estimated to be close to 100 mph near the typhoon centre and the lowest central pressure recorded was 952mb.

Rainbands extended along way ahead of the typhoon as it approached and 598mm (23.5″) rain were recorded at Tokushima (west of the landfall point) in the 48 hours prior to the centre reaching Japan. Rain and the strongest winds have now cleared from southern and western parts of Japan.

As of 1200 UTC Japan Meteorological Agency still classified Roke as a typhoon centred over eastern parts of Honshu a short distance south-west of Fukushima. Heavy rain is continuing in this region and will do so for a few more hours before clearing. It is likely to be downgraded to a tropical storm soon.

The centre of the storm is currently emerging back out over the ocean east of northern Honshu. It is expected to accelerate north-east and becomes a strong post-tropical storm in the north Pacific Ocean.

Radar imagery of Typhoon Roke

Met Office updates on Twitter: @metofficestorms








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