Met Office figures show we are on course for coldest March in over 50 years

This March is set to be the coldest since 1962 in the UK in the national record dating back to 1910, according to provisional Met Office statistics.

From 1 to 26 March the UK mean temperature was 2.5 °C, which is three degrees below the long term average. This also makes it joint 4^th coldest on record in the UK.

The table below gives details of statistics up to the 26 March for broken down by the counties used to compile climate statistics.

	mean temperature		precipitation
	Actual  (deg C)	Difference from 1981-2010 average (deg C)	Actual (mm)	Percentage of 1981-2010 average (%)
Regions
UK	2.5	-3.0	62.2	65
England	2.9	-3.3	63.4	99
Wales	2.8	-3.0	86.2	74
Scotland	1.6	-2.5	50.3	36
N Ireland	3.0	-2.9	78.9	83
England & Wales	2.9	-3.3	66.6	94
England N	2.0	-3.5	54.0	72
England S	3.4	-3.2	68.4	118
Historic Counties
Aberdeenshire	0.6	-3.1	67.9	86
Anglesey	3.9	-2.9	79.8	100
Antrim	2.9	-2.8	68.9	75
Argyllshire	2.5	-2.1	47.2	22
Armagh	3.1	-3.1	96.8	125
Ayrshire	2.0	-2.9	53.8	41
Banffshire	0.8	-3.1	56.4	76
Bedfordshire	3.0	-3.5	50.1	119
Berkshire	3.4	-3.2	78.5	157
Berwickshire	1.6	-3.2	65.0	108
Brecknockshire	1.9	-3.1	100.5	74
Buckinghamshire	3.1	-3.4	66.6	137
Buteshire	2.7	-2.3	58.0	36
Caithness	2.3	-1.9	45.5	52
Cambridgeshire	3.2	-3.5	40.0	102
Cardiganshire	2.8	-2.8	62.5	54
Carmarthenshire	3.4	-2.7	87.0	69
Carnarvonshire	2.8	-3.0	96.1	64
Cheshire	2.9	-3.5	42.1	72
Clackmannanshire	1.7	-2.7	65.3	57
Cornwall	5.1	-2.3	102.0	109
Cumberland	1.6	-3.3	42.1	37
Denbighshire	2.1	-3.4	66.2	75
Derbyshire	1.9	-3.7	58.8	81
Devon	4.0	-2.7	112.9	118
Dorset	4.0	-2.7	96.8	132
Down	3.2	-3.0	158.4	193
Dumfriesshire	1.3	-3.1	65.6	53
Dunbartonshire	2.1	-2.7	49.4	25
Durham	1.6	-3.4	61.9	99
East Lothianshire	1.9	-3.2	55.4	100
Essex	3.5	-3.3	44.2	110
Fermanagh	3.0	-3.0	45.6	42
Fifeshire	2.3	-3.0	58.8	89
Flintshire	2.9	-3.5	60.9	105
Forfarshire	0.9	-3.0	73.1	89
Glamorganshire	3.6	-2.8	123.1	98
Gloucestershire	3.2	-3.3	77.1	129
Hampshire	3.9	-2.9	85.4	133
Herefordshire	2.9	-3.5	80.3	134
Hertfordshire	3.2	-3.4	50.3	109
Huntingdonshire	3.1	-3.6	56.4	143
Inverness	1.3	-2.1	36.9	19
Kent	3.8	-3.1	58.2	121
Kincardineshire	1.5	-3.1	56.5	82
Kinross	1.5	-3.0	65.6	65
Kirkcudbrightshire	1.7	-3.0	79.2	54
Lanarkshire	1.2	-3.0	51.8	47
Lancashire	2.6	-3.3	41.1	45
Leicestershire	2.4	-3.8	52.4	114
Lincolnshire	2.7	-3.6	49.0	113
Londonderry	3.0	-2.8	59.3	60
Merionethshire	1.8	-3.1	98.6	62
Mid Lothianshire	1.7	-3.1	59.4	83
Middlesex	4.2	-3.3	57.7	128
Monmouthshire	3.1	-3.2	94.8	100
Montgomeryshire	2.0	-3.4	64.5	56
Moray	1.7	-2.8	39.5	60
Nairnshire	1.5	-2.9	32.0	47
Norfolk	3.0	-3.4	60.5	128
Northamptonshire	2.6	-3.6	61.0	133
Northumberland	1.5	-3.3	63.0	92
Nottinghamshire	2.6	-3.8	49.0	113
Oxfordshire	3.0	-3.3	74.3	149
Peeblesshire	0.4	-3.4	69.6	68
Pembrokeshire	4.0	-2.6	76.9	77
Perthshire	0.6	-2.6	58.8	39
Radnorshire	1.7	-3.2	87.8	91
Renfrewshire	2.5	-2.8	42.8	29
Ross and Cromarty	2.1	-2.0	35.1	20
Roxburghshire	1.0	-3.4	62.8	73
Rutland	2.4	-3.7	58.0	123
Selkirkshire	0.5	-3.1	76.5	68
Shropshire	2.6	-3.5	61.6	108
Somerset	3.8	-3.0	65.3	91
Staffordshire	2.3	-3.7	51.0	87
Stirlingshire	1.9	-2.9	53.2	36
Suffolk	3.2	-3.3	46.4	104
Surrey	3.7	-3.1	72.1	135
Sussex	4.0	-2.8	64.6	103
Sutherland	1.5	-2.4	38.8	27
Tyrone	2.8	-2.8	60.1	57
Warwickshire	2.8	-3.6	52.2	110
West Lothianshire	1.9	-3.1	49.3	62
West Suffolk	3.3	-3.5	31.8	80
Westmorland	1.2	-3.1	56.1	40
Wigtownshire	2.7	-2.8	55.5	51
Wiltshire	3.3	-3.0	76.1	118
Worcestershire	3.1	-3.5	63.9	133
Yorkshire	1.9	-3.6	59.0	84

Clearly March has been extremely cold and snowy and joins 2006, 2001, 1995, 1987, 1979, 1970 and 1962 as years when March saw some significant snowfall.

The cold weather is expected to continue through the Easter weekend and into April. You can stay up-to-date with forecasts and warnings online, through our mobile apps, facebook and twitter, and through TV and radio broadcasts.

The table below lists the coldest March average temperatures on record and details where March 2013 ranks in terms of cold months of March.

Area	Coldest March on Record (deg C and year)		Rank of March 2013
Aberdeenshire	-1.4	1947	5
Anglesey	3.6	1962	2
Antrim	2.2	1947	5
Argyllshire	1.5	1947	5
Armagh	2.9	1919/1947	4
Ayrshire	1.0	1947	5
Banffshire	-1.0	1947	5
Bedfordshire	2.3	1962	2
Berkshire	2.6	1962	2
Berwickshire	0.3	1947	5
Brecknockshire	1.1	1962	2
Buckinghamshire	2.3	1962	2
Buteshire	1.5	1947	5
Caithness	0.0	1947	5
Cambridgeshire	2.6	1962	2
Cardiganshire	2.0	1962	3
Carmarthenshire	2.5	1962	3
Carnarvonshire	2.3	1962	3
Cheshire	2.6	1962	2
Clackmannanshire	0.1	1947	4
Cornwall	3.9	1962	2
Cumberland	1.0	1947	4
Denbighshire	1.4	1962	2
Derbyshire	1.5	1962	2
Devon	3.1	1962	2
Dorset	3.1	1962	2
Down	3.0	1937/1947	4
Dumfriesshire	0.5	1947	5
Dunbartonshire	0.3	1947	5
Durham	0.9	1947	4
East Lothianshire	0.2	1947	5
Essex	2.8	1962	2
Fermanagh	2.8	1947	3
Fifeshire	0.7	1947	5
Flintshire	2.4	1962	2
Forfarshire	-0.6	1947	4
Glamorganshire	2.9	1962	3
Gloucestershire	2.6	1962	2
Hampshire	3.0	1962	2
Herefordshire	2.4	1962	2
Hertfordshire	2.4	1962	2
Huntingdonshire	2.6	1962	2
Inverness	0.0	1947	5
Kent	2.9	1962	2
Kincardineshire	0.3	1947	2
Kinross	-0.1	1947	5
Kirkcudbrightshire	0.9	1947	3
Lanarkshire	0.0	1947	5
Lancashire	2.3	1962	2
Leicestershire	2.0	1962	2
Lincolnshire	2.4	1962	2
Londonderry	2.2	1947	5
Merionethshire	1.2	1962	3
Mid Lothianshire	0.1	1947	5
Middlesex	3.4	1962	2
Monmouthshire	2.5	1962	2
Montgomeryshire	1.3	1962	3
Moray	-0.2	1947	5
Nairnshire	0.0	1947	5
Norfolk	2.5	1962	2
Northamptonshire	2.1	1962	2
Northumberland	0.4	1947	4
Nottinghamshire	2.4	1962	2
Oxfordshire	2.4	1962	2
Peeblesshire	-1.2	1947	5
Pembrokeshire	3.2	1962	3
Perthshire	-1.2	1947	5
Radnorshire	1.1	1962	2
Renfrewshire	0.8	1947	5
Ross and Cromarty	0.8	1947	5
Roxburghshire	-0.4	1947	5
Rutland	1.9	1962	2
Selkirkshire	-0.8	1947	5
Shropshire	2.1	1962	2
Somerset	3.0	1962	2
Staffordshire	1.9	1962	2
Stirlingshire	0.1	1947	5
Suffolk	2.5	1962	2
Surrey	2.8	1962	2
Sussex	2.9	1962	2
Sutherland	0.1	1947	5
Tyrone	2.3	1947	5
Warwickshire	2.3	1962	2
West Lothianshire	0.3	1947	5
West Suffolk	2.5	1962	2
Westmorland	0.4	1947	3
Wigtownshire	1.7	1947	3
Wiltshire	2.5	1962	2
Worcestershire	2.7	1962	2
Yorkshire	1.4	1947	3

The full month figures for March 2013 will be available later next week and a summary of the month will be issued soon after.

Latest snow depths and wind speeds – 24 March

As forecast, we have seen some very wintry weather over the last few days. Here are some figures showing where the most snow has fallen.

Wittering in Cambridgeshire saw the deepest snow, with 24 cm recorded at 9 am this morning.

Many areas also saw strong winds, with a gust of 61 mph recorded at Shap, Cumbria and 48 mph recorded at Machrihanish, Argyll . These winds have caused even deeper drifts of snow in some areas.

Snow depths at 9 am 24 March

TIME	SITE NAME	AREA	ELEVATION (m)	SNOW DEPTH (cm)
09:00	WITTERING	CAMBRIDGESHIRE	73	24
09:00	WATTISHAM	SUFFOLK	89	20
09:00	NOTTINGHAM, WATNALL	NOTTINGHAMSHIRE	117	19
09:00	SHAWBURY	SHROPSHIRE	72	14
09:00	ANDREWSFIELD	ESSEX	87	12
09:00	CRANWELL	LINCOLNSHIRE	63	10
09:00	LEEK, THORNCLIFFE	STAFFORDSHIRE	298	7
09:00	ABOYNE	ABERDEENSHIRE	140	7
09:00	HIGH WYCOMBE	BUCKINGHAMSHIRE	204	7
09:00	SENNYBRIDGE	POWYS	307	7
09:00	SHAP	CUMBRIA	252	7
09:00	COLESHILL	WARWICKSHIRE	96	6
09:00	HAWARDEN AIRPORT	CLYWD	11	6

March – a month of weather contrasts

Winter seems to have hung on for quite some time this year with low temperatures, frost, ice and snow affecting many areas into late March. This isn’t altogether unusual as we are more likely to see snow at Easter than at Christmas. However, March 2012 was very different with plenty of sunshine and temperatures into the low 20s Celsius. How come?

Well, this time last year the UK was under the influence of high pressure. This gave us clear skies, plenty of sunshine and with a light southerly breeze, temperatures that were well above average. In fact, Scotland set an all time record maximum temperature with 22.8 °C at Fyvie Castle in Aberdeenshire.

Visible satellite image from March 2012

This year, with a strong easterly wind bringing cold air from Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, we have quite the opposite with eastern parts of the UK in particular seeing snow, ice and temperatures around 20 degrees Celsius lower.

Visibile satellite image from March 2013

The direction of the wind therefore plays a major part in what type of weather you and I will see, especially as we have the Atlantic Ocean to our west and continental Europe to our south and east. Different wind directions bring air with different temperature and moisture contents. Meteorologically, they are termed air masses and in March 2012 we saw a Tropical Continental air mass bringing dry and warm air from the Mediterranean. This year we have been affected by a Polar Continental air mass, bringing cold air from the east. The following video explains exactly what we mean by air masses.

With different air masses constantly affecting the UK, the weather is a particularly challenging thing to forecast, especially so in March. This is because in early spring the sun is starting to rise higher in the sky and the amount of daylight hours start to increase. This means we get more heat building up in the lower part of our atmosphere. The result is slightly more energy, which in turn can lead to heavier showers. We can also see more unstable air and more active fronts as a result of greater heating. With more moisture available in the atmosphere, we also tend to see heavier or more prolonged rainfall and if this mixes with cold air, more snowfall. It makes forecasting more complicated because the extra heat and moisture adds another aspect to the weather, which tends amplify the effects of different air masses.

You can find out more about forecasting snow on our website or on the following video:

This week’s snowfall captured by rainfall radar

The rainfall radar network is a great way of looking back at how weather systems affect the UK.

Here we see rainfall radar imagery from 00:00 GMT on Sunday 10 March to 09:00 GMT on Tuesday 12 March. It shows snow showers affecting much of the UK while an area of heavier snowfall affects northern France, the Channel Islands and the far south-east of England.

What’s particularly interesting is that it shows really well how the showers and the heavier snowfall across the south were moving in totally different directions. The snow showers can be seen moving in from the North Sea on north-easterly winds. Meanwhile, the heavier and more persistent snowfall was moving in from the south-west as an area of low pressure tracked across France. You can see how these two systems collided over Sussex and Kent, resulting in the heavy snowfall here.

At the very end of the sequence the wind changes direction again over the north of the UK, with the snow showers being blown across Scotland from the north.

You can see current observations from our rainfall radar on our website.

Today’s weather from above

Today’s satellite images show the small areas of the UK which have snow lying, as well as a number of interesting cloud formations.

12 March 2013 Left: Visible satellite image of the UK, Right: False colour satellite image of the UK.

The snow shows up very clearly over the Pennines and Scottish Borders, over the Isle of Wight, southeast England and the far east of East Anglia. False colour images are particularly good for identifying snow because the turquoise colour helps to differentiate between the white of the snow and the white of the clouds.

You can also see how the clouds have lined up on the wind across southern Britain – this is a great example of cumulus clouds forming ‘cloud streets’ when the winds at the height of the clouds are strong.

Over the sea to the north of the UK we can see more shower clouds moving towards us. Here we have a great example of the two different types of convection: open cell – where the individual clouds form circles over the sea; and closed cell – where the individual clouds have ‘clumped’ together across northern Scotland.

Aren’t satellite pictures wonderful.

Spring swing brings colder weather and snow

We’ve had some very mild conditions this week with welcome sunshine pushing temperatures into the high teens. However, in a classic spring swing, colder weather is on the way as we head into the weekend.

By Saturday, we will see a return of easterly winds which will bring in much colder air from Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. Snow is expected across some eastern parts of the country over the weekend. By the start of next week, most of the UK will see daytime highs in low single figures with some frosty and icy nights.

So how unusual is it to see cold weather and snow in March?

The UK’s weather is very much at the mercy of where our winds come from, and throughout spring we can see sudden swings in the weather conditions. If we look back to last year we had very high temperatures at the end of March as the UK was under the influence of high pressure and light south-easterly winds. This year, this week’s south-easterly winds are now giving way to colder easterlies.

What about snow?

Statistics show that snow is more likely in March than around Christmas. As we know, heat from the sun increases as we head towards summer and this can lead to some interesting weather in March. With more heat from the sun the ground warms up more quickly and gives very unstable air, which can lead to a greater number of showers. Warmer air also holds more moisture so showers can give heavier rainfall. If this combines with cold air we can potentially see some heavy snowfall. However, easterly winds tend to be dry and so substantial snow fall is not expected over the next week.

As always, the Met Office will be working with different agencies to keep Britain on the move, and to keep people safe and well during periods of cold weather. The latest forecasts and warnings can be found online, through our mobile apps and through TV and radio broadcasts.

It’s cold but why is there no frost?

There’s no denying that we have seen some cold weather this winter with plenty of frost, ice and in many cases, snow. However, the last week has been cold – arguably perhaps feeling colder than any other time this winter – but we haven’t seen any evidence of this on the ground in the way of frost. So how is this possible?

For a classic frosty night we need a few ingredients: low temperatures, clear skies, calm winds and moisture. A clear, calm night gives excellent radiation conditions – by this we mean that the heat absorbed by the Earth’s surface during the day escapes readily back into space and allows temperatures to fall. If the temperature falls to the dew point (the temperature to which air must cool for it to become saturated with water vapour) moisture will condense and form droplets on the ground’s surface. When temperatures fall below freezing the droplets freeze and we get frost.

So what about the last few days? They have been cold but there hasn’t really been any prolonged or hard frost. How come? Well, much of Scotland and Northern Ireland has had the required ingredients and been frosty, but the rest of the UK has only had low temperatures. Much of England and Wales have seen a fair amount of cloud and some brisk winds.

Surface pressure chart from 25 February 2013

Cloud acts as a blanket and although temperatures have fallen during the night-time, cloud cover has stopped them falling well below freezing and therefore made it difficult for a thick frost to form. The wind is also important as it mixes the lower part of our atmosphere. Rather than having cold air pooling in one place and causing low temperatures, the wind can bring less cold air from another location or even bring it down from the upper atmosphere. This also helps to keep temperatures from falling too low. However, easterly winds this week have certainly made it feel very cold indeed!

Visible satellite image from 25 February 2013

Lastly, the air near the surface has been relatively dry. This is important because it means the temperature of the air must fall very low in order to reach its dew point. The cloud and wind has stopped this from happening easily and therefore reduced the risk of frost.

Cold weather, then, brings lots of different tastes of winter, especially to the UK, and we have seen nearly all of them this season. More information on all types of weather can be found here.

Cold weather across UK

The start of this week was relatively mild and sunny but we have seen a change to colder and cloudier weather during the course of the week.

High pressure became established to the north-east of the UK and this dragged in colder air from Scandinavia. It took some time for the cold air to filter across the whole of the UK but over the last couple of days daytime temperatures struggled to rise to 3 °C in some places. Brisk winds across England and Wales made it feel much colder, and we saw a few snow showers across eastern parts of the country.

Will Lang, Met Office Chief Forecaster, said: “This is a different taste of winter to the snow and ice we have seen of late. These largely dry, settled and cold conditions may not be as disruptive to travel but they do present concerns surrounding the health and well being of the elderly and vulnerable.”

The Met Office issued a level 3 Cold Weather Alert in light of the widespread and prolonged cold conditions. These alerts give advance warning of adverse weather conditions, which enable people to take extra precautions to keep safe and well.

A Department of Health spokesperson said: “Severe cold weather can be dangerous, especially for the very young or very old or those with chronic disease. You can find advice on how to reduce your risk or that of somebody you know on the NHS Choices website, ringing NHS Direct on 0845 46 47 or contacting your local GP or pharmacist.

“The NHS is well prepared for the winter and we are providing an extra £330 million to the NHS and social care services to help cope with the added pressure that the winter brings.”

With high pressure remaining in place, cold and largely settled weather looks set to remain across the UK until the end of February at least, and you can find the latest information from our forecasts and warnings, our mobile apps and through broadcasts on TV and radio.

Will the UK see snow this weekend?

There is potential for some significant amounts of snow over parts of the UK later this weekend. However, the detail of where and when this snow will fall is still uncertain.

So what is happening in the atmosphere? A frontal system that’s been working its way across the Atlantic during the last couple of days will push rather erratically eastwards across the UK this weekend, bringing some persistent and, at times, heavy rain to parts of the country. We also currently have some cold air sitting over the near continent and, as the rain advances eastwards, an area of low pressure will form over southern parts of the UK, causing winds to turn easterly and bring this colder air in from the continent.

How and where this area of low pressure forms will also be critical in determining where and when the heaviest of the snow falls, and exactly where the dividing line between rain, sleet and snow is.

The most likely scenario at present shows the heaviest snow across the Midlands, Wales and northern England with over 10 cm of snow currently forecast.

However, different computer models are currently showing this process taking place in different ways and in different locations, and it is uncertainty within the atmosphere that is making the Chief Forecasters job so difficult. To help us provide the best advice possible to you, the Met Office uses both deterministic forecast and ensemble forecast models.

A deterministic forecast uses current observations of the atmosphere to create a single forecast. In the case of this weekend’s weather it indicated the most likely place to see snow. However, over the last few days the most likely part of the UK has changed each day which in itself generates lower confidence in the detail of the forecast. To help increase confidence, we use an ensemble model which generates a group of forecasts each with slightly different starting conditions. The Met Office ensemble model has 24 solutions and the output of this model shows the spread in probability of where in the UK could see snow. This highest probability is the point where the majority of the 24 solutions are in agreement. This can be combined with the deterministic forecast to help make a final decision on forecasts and warnings.

Met Office forecasters will continue to look at the available evidence with a view to providing the most accurate, timely, warnings and forecasts.

January weather – your pictures

Thank you for sharing your January weather pictures with us on Twitter. Here’s a selection of our favourites. The January summary video is coming shortly.

@metoffice view of Ossett from Netherton Sat 26th Jan. twitter.com/MarkDParsons/s…

— Mark Parsons (@MarkDParsons) January 28, 2013

@metoffice my boy Jacob on his sledge in Netherton Wakefield. twitter.com/MarkDParsons/s…

— Mark Parsons (@MarkDParsons) January 28, 2013

@metoffice twitter.com/ClerkinJill/st…

— Jill Clerkin (@ClerkinJill) January 28, 2013

@metoffice twitter.com/chrishallam40/…

— Chris Hallam (@chrishallam40) January 28, 2013

@metoffice Snowy Sunderland. twitter.com/PeterCrompton1…

— Peter Crompton (@PeterCrompton1) January 28, 2013

twitter.com/TigerTrophy/st…@metofficeYoung Topper sailors training at Rutland Sailing Club last Saturday in anticipation of Tiger Trophy

— John Merricks (@TigerTrophy) January 28, 2013

@metoffice Alton, Hants twitter.com/jayneinchawton…

— Jayne Whittock (@jayneinchawton) January 28, 2013

@metoffice twitter.com/macno_pickle/s…

— Steven Bailey (@macno_pickle) January 28, 2013

@metoffice my winter photo: Blenheim Palace Estate Oxfordshire taken couple of weeks ago on my way to work twitter.com/k1eranw/status…

— Kieran Woodruff (@k1eranw) January 28, 2013

@metoffice Rain after the snow. #january twitter.com/domsdads/statu…

— Robert Rudman™ (@domsdads) January 28, 2013

@metoffice Castle Donington in the snow twitter.com/CastleDoningto…

— Vicky Ambrose-Jones (@CastleDonington) January 28, 2013

@metoffice frosty leaf in my garden in thurrock twitter.com/Thurrock0rob/s…

— rob lay (@Thurrock0rob) January 28, 2013

@metoffice saw these chaps in Ivinghoe twitter.com/MaryDoherty1/s…

— Mary Doherty (@MaryDoherty1) January 28, 2013

@metoffice River Humber taken from Hessle Foreshore, East Yorkshire. Photo taken January 2013 twitter.com/BadWolf2009/st…

— Simon Fields (@BadWolf2009) January 28, 2013

@metoffice flickr.com/photos/tupperw…

— The Flying GoPro (@theflyinggopro) January 28, 2013

@metoffice How about this pic of Hartshead Pike, Tameside, in the snow ow.ly/i/1qQtm ?

— Tameside Council (@TamesideCouncil) January 28, 2013

@metoffice Took this in Pontypridd, just as a branch snapped under the weight of the snow. twitter.com/zubiedoo/statu…

— Debra wood (@zubiedoo) January 28, 2013

@metoffice twitter.com/eihcra1980/sta…

— Graeme Rowell (@eihcra1980) January 28, 2013

@metoffice will this one do? flickr.com/photos/shaunbe…

— Shaun Bellis (@shaunbellis) January 28, 2013