October set for top ten warmest

1 11 2013

5 November 2013 Update – The full month figures are available in our latest blog

Early statistics for October up to the 28th of the month suggest this October is likely to be one of the warmest in records dating back to 1910.

Map showing relative warmth of October temperatures across the UK.

Map showing relative warmth of October temperatures across the UK.

The mean temperature for the UK from the 1st to the 28th is 11.6 °C, which is 2.1 °C above the long-term (1981-2010) average. It’s currently ranked joint fifth warmest in the records, but this could change once the final three days of data have been included.

Mild temperatures were experienced across all parts of the UK – with October currently being in the top ten warmest for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, it was particularly mild in Wales, with this October currently ranked as the joint warmest on record alongside 2001.

There were no autumn heat waves through October, just a persistence of mild conditions – particularly mild nights – and frost has been rare through the month.

October 2013 is also notable because it was dull and, for most places, relatively wet. Sunshine hours are currently below the long-term average, while rainfall is already above ‘normal’ levels for everywhere apart from Scotland – which is about average.

Below are figures from 1-28 October, and we’ll update on the full-month figures early next week.

Below is a table showing statistics for 1-28 October, and we’ll update with full-month statistics early next week.

Mean temp Sunshine Rainfall
October 1-28 Actual (°C) Diff to Avg Actual (hrs) % of Avg Actual (mm) % of Avg
UK 11.6 2.1 67.3 73 147.6 116
England 12.6 2.2 74.4 72 131.6 143
Wales 12.3 2.4 66.7 72 208.9 123
Scotland 9.7 1.8 52.7 70 157.9 90
N Ireland 11.2 1.8 84.1 96 145.6 122




UK’s unsettled weather and the jet stream

21 10 2013

The UK is set to see unsettled weather throughout this week as heavy rain and windy conditions are expected to affect many areas, whilst temperatures will remain mild for the time of year.

We talk about the jet stream quite a bit in the UK because it has such a big influence on our weather, and this week is no exception as it’s playing a leading role in determining the unsettled outlook.

What is the jet stream?

The jet stream is a band of fast moving westerly winds high up in the atmosphere which circle around the pole in the northern hemisphere. It can feature winds of up to 200 knots (230 mph) or more, and these winds tend to guide wet and windy weather systems which come in off the Atlantic.

The jet moves around a fair bit and its position can have a big impact on weather here in the UK depending on where it is.

If the Jet is over the UK or just to the south, we tend to get a lot of wet and windy conditions as it brings weather systems straight to us. If the jet is to the north of us, it guides that changeable weather away to the north to leave the UK with more settled conditions.

What’s the jet stream doing now?

Unsurprisingly given the outlook for this week, the jet is positioned more or less directly over the UK – but it’s the detail of its track which is important.

As you can see from the picture below, the jet currently swoops south from western Canada – moving over the Atlantic before taking a sharp turn north to head over the UK.

Forecast chart showing  expected position of the jet stream at 1pm on Tuesday 22 October

Forecast chart showing expected position of the jet stream at 1pm on Tuesday 22 October

This means relatively cool air is being dragged south then over the Atlantic, where warmer seas heat the air from below. This causes the air to warm and rise – creating instability and generating cloud and rain.

By the time weather systems reach they UK they have picked up a lot of rain and relatively warm air, bringing us the wet but mild conditions we are currently seeing.

What’s the weather outlook?

Currently unsettled weather looks set to impact the UK through the week, with heavy rain affecting many areas at times.

There may be more settled conditions on Thursday, and perhaps again on Saturday, but looking further ahead into the start of next week the outlook is for unsettled weather to continue.

You can stay up to date with what to expect with our detailed forecasts out to 5-days and our weather warnings, as well as a general view of what we expect out to 30 days.

You can find out more about the jet stream in our YouTube video.





What’s causing the warm weather in the UK?

27 03 2012

Temperatures continue to break records across parts of the UK. Cromdale in Moray reached 23.2 deg C on Monday breaking the record set the day before for the warmest March day in Scotland.

Following on from our post yesterday ‘Why is it so warm?‘ we have put together a video explaining the meteorological reasons behind this fine spring weather. We also provide an outlook for the rest of the week.

 





Why is it so warm?

26 03 2012

The last few days have been unseasonably warm but why is this happening so early in the year? The answer lies largely in the air flow directly above the United Kingdom but more importantly where that air has come from.

Over the last week or so we have been under the influence of high pressure which has given us very settled conditions, with light winds and a lot of sunshine. During the daytime, the sun has injected plenty of warmth and the light south to south-easterly winds have drawn further warm air towards us from continental Europe.

UK visible satellite image from 0900 GMT 26 March 2012. Source: Met Office/EUMETSAT

We would normally expect average maximum temperatures in March to edge into double figures across the south of the country and stay much cooler further north. However, over the last few days temperatures have reached the low twenties and we have seen a new record high for Scotland in March as the temperature reached 22.8 °C at Fyvie Castle in Aberdeenshire on Sunday 25 March and temperatures are expected to reach similar values over the next couple of days.

The last time we had a comparable warm spell in March was during 2005 between the 16th and 26th when temperatures reached 21.8 °C at Kew Gardens on the 19th. Before that we have to go back to 1968 and 1965 when two shorter spells (which coincidentally both happened for the same two-day period in March, from 29th to 30th) saw highs of 25.6 °C at Mepal, Cambridgeshire and 25.0 °C in Wakefield respectively, both on the 29th.

Average maximum temperatures for March.

The settled and clear conditions by day continue during the night time and allow much of the sun’s energy to escape from the earth’s surface back into the atmosphere, allowing temperatures to fall quickly after dusk. So, in contrast to the warm, sunny days, the nights are clear and cool, especially this time of year. Although we are seeing temperatures reaching in excess of 20 °C by day, we have seen overnight minima fall below freezing in some areas and many of us are waking up to frosty mornings. With light winds, mist or fog patches are also likely to form.

The weather forecast for the next few days remains settled and warm for much of the country with temperatures in the high teens or low twenties. But later in the week, the area of high pressure will drift to the west of the UK and allow a northerly wind to bring in more cloud and cooler air to all parts, with the chance of a few showers.

 





What has brought the warm autumn weather to the UK?

27 09 2011

Over the next few days we are expecting a spell of very warm weather for this time of year across much of England and Wales and even parts of Scotland too. The reason why we are seeing this unseasonable warm spell is due to an area of high pressure which has developed across much of central Europe, centred on Germany and Poland.

This draws up very warm air from a long way south, from parts of France and Spain. That comes across a dry continent removing most of the moisture out of the air. As a result we see very little in the way of cloud with blue skies and plenty of sunshine. As a result the sunshine warms the ground and the ground warms the air so we see high temperatures for this time of the year.

In the video below Paul Gundersen, Met Office Chief Forecaster provides more details about this warm spell, how long it will last and whether this really is an ‘Indian Summer’.





Met Office in the Media: 04 May 2011

4 05 2011

There has been widespread coverage of the April climate statistics following what has been the warmest and 11th driest April on record. The Met Office appeared on the BBC One, Six and Ten O’Clock News as well as the News Channel, BBC Radio Four 6 O’Clock News and the ITV News.   The effects of the dry and warm weather have been felt in some areas with many news channels reporting on the heathland and moorland fires in the UK and on the impacts of the fine weather on farming.

The Met Office is working closely with the Environment Agency and water companies regarding water resources and is also working with the National Farmers Union on the current spell of dry weather, its impacts and the weather in the coming weeks.

The Met Office is also working closely with a number of Fire and Rescue services across the UK, helping them with forecasts of wind and weather to support their continued efforts of bringing the wildfires under control. Breezy weather over the last few days has hampered efforts, but winds are now gradually easing and this will help the firefighters in their efforts.

The impacts of weather have been recorded in business as well with Thornton’s reporting that the fine weather has negatively affected business, while conversely the fine spring weather has boosted sales at Next. The weather is known to impact retail business and the Met Office offers a range of services to support the retail sector manage the weather.








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