The Great Storm of 1987 remains one of the most talked about weather events for a generation, it even featured in the Olympic Opening Ceremony. Twenty five years on, the storm has led to numerous improvements to the science, technology and communication of forecasting which has transformed the way the UK responds to severe weather.
Following the wettest summer in over a century, a north Devon tourism boss has suggested the Met Office delivers ‘pessimistic forecasts’. Although we can’t change the weather we’d like to help in any other way we can.
The Met Office has worked with the tourism industry in recent years to provide detailed forecasts for resorts, beaches and attractions with local forecasts for up to 5000 locations across the UK. All our forecasts provide local three-hourly detail of the weather with information on the chance of rain so that visitors can plan their day out with confidence and make the most of the great British weather come rain or shine.
We have also made these forecasts easier to access for holiday makers and attraction owners too. Such developments include our website widget which attraction owners can embed on their websites so that visitors can get instant access to the latest forecasts, warnings and observations. With a simple click the most up-to-date and accurate weather forecast, not just for today but for the next five day.
At the time of launch of these local forecasts, Mark Smith, Director of Bournemouth Tourism said: “These forecasts from the Met Office communicate weather forecast information in clearer, more appropriate and user friendly ways that allow tourists and tourism operators to better plan activities.”
In addition visitors can get our forecasts from our popular Android and iPhone Apps, mobile phones which allow you to get the latest weather forecast on the go, as well as on TV or on the radio.
The Met Office is trusted by the public to give the best possible guidance on the weather and we report the weather exactly as it is, so by putting our weather forecasts on tourist attraction websites, visitors can access the best weather forecasts available.
Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like us to tell them exactly what the weather will do so they can make definite decisions in their local area.
Nature, however, doesn’t work like that. But one thing we can do is tell people about the probabilities of things happening.
In the short range, it is possible to predict with a high degree of accuracy what the weather has in store. However, the science does not exist to allow precise prediction of local details five days ahead. When severe weather may be on the way, it may be very unpredictable even in the short term. In these situations, uncertainty, or risk, becomes increasingly important in weather forecasting.
To forecast the weather we first gather observations from around the world to measure what the atmosphere is doing. We use these observations to set up a computer simulation of the atmosphere that represents what is happening right now. The model then calculates how the atmosphere will evolve over the coming days. Unfortunately, due to chaos, small unknowns in our observed atmosphere can grow rapidly to give large uncertainties in the forecast.
Over the last 15 years, the Met Office has developed sophisticated techniques to understand these uncertainties, called ensemble forecasts. This means we run our simulations many times instead of just once, from very slightly different starting conditions. The range of different outcomes gives us a measure of how confident or uncertain we should be in the overall forecast. On some occasions the uncertainty is quite small and we can be confident – other times much less so. This can help decision makers manage the risks associated with the weather.
Using ensembles is good science and it lets us give an indication of our certainty in a forecast. But it also presents us with a problem. How do we effectively communicate the forecast, both the bits we can be confident about and the areas where we are less confident? How can we communicate probabilities?
The Met Office is already beginning to provide more probability based information on its website. This includes information on the chance of rain and the possible range of maximum and minimum temperatures for our 5000 or so location forecasts available online. Furthermore we are using probability information within our National Severe Weather warnings and are at times supporting these with additional images and videos to explain possible severe weather.
Ken Mylne, Probability Weather Forecasting expert at the Met Office, will be presenting at the Royal Society conference ‘Handling uncertainty in weather and climate prediction, with application to health, agronomy, hydrology, energy and economics’ taking place today and tomorrow.
This weekend’s weather forecast is proving more challenging than usual as we see signs of much more unsettled conditions developing for all parts of the UK over the next few days.
Much of the UK is set to have a fine and dry weekend with sunny spells, light winds and temperatures in the mid to high teens Celsius after some cold nights.
There is now increasing confidence that southern parts of the UK (roughly south of a line from south Wales to Ipswich) will see wet and windy weather on Sunday.
This wet and windy weather is not the remnants of tropical storm Nadine – this stays close to the Azores. However, we are expecting a new area of low pressure to develop to the west of Iberia on Saturday which will move northeast, pulling some warm air from Nadine with it. It is this that would bring wet and windy weather to the far south of England and Wales for Sunday and other parts of the UK next week.
The challenge for forecasters is to pinpoint how this low pressure area will move. The weather forecast models available to Met Office forecasters are giving slightly different answers to this problem. As Anthony Astbury, Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster, explains: “One model brings the low over Brittany giving rain and gales in the south of England, while another brings the low further west, with the risk of wet and windy weather for southwestern England and south Wales.”
There is still uncertainty about how the low pressure area will develop and move on Monday, and therefore which areas of the UK will see the worst of the weather early next week.
However, this heralds a spell of very unsettled weather for the whole of the UK for next week, with all parts seeing unsettled and windy conditions with showers or longer spells of rain.
Keep up to date with the forecast and warnings for the latest information.
Ground-breaking high resolution weather forecasting lies at the heart of the Met Office’s services to the Olympic Games, providing the best advice available to both the organisers and competitors at venues in London and across the UK.
The London 2012 Olympic Games got underway in spectacular style on Friday night. As forecast, the Olympic Park saw a brief shower in the run up to the opening ceremony but the main event stayed dry.
The Met Office has been working with LOCOG, providing both longer term planning information and up to the minute details on the likely weather conditions as the focus now moves to the sporting events.
With the rowing events set to get underway on Saturday, accurate forecasts of wind conditions will be crucial to success. Predicting the subtle shifts in wind direction and speed over a small area like the Eton Dorney rowing lake is becoming possible thanks to the introduction of some new advances.
The Met Office weather forecasting model typically forecasts the weather using grid boxes of 4 x 4 km. But the new UKV model uses a much finer scale at 1.5 x 1.5 km over the whole of the country.
Just as increasing the number of pixels on a digital camera improves the picture, reducing the size of these grid boxes can add much more detail and clarity to the forecast.
For the Olympics, the Met Office is set to take high-resolution forecasting a step further by running multiple forecasts at the same time, a technique called ensemble forecasting.
Brian Golding, Deputy Director of Weather Science at the Met Office, explained: “By running multiple forecasts with slightly different starting conditions we can get a handle on how likely a forecast is. This means we can assess the chances of weather impacts in a certain area at a certain time, so we can give much more useful guidance.”
Using this system, detailed probability forecasts of head, tail and crosswinds will be used by the rowing teams at Eton Dorney as they look for that decisive edge that may bring that prized Olympic medal.
The high-resolution ensembles will be used throughout the Olympics. They will then be subject to further research, with a view that the facility could be introduced operationally in the future. This will potentially leave a legacy that will benefit the UK well after the Olympic and Paralympic Games are over.
You can keep up to date with our weather forecasts on our website or with our specific London 2012 Olympic Games forecasts.
Our science and technology developments for the Olympic and Paralympic Games will help to deliver increasing accuracy and detail in our weather forecasts during the Games and well into the future.
As part of the services provided for London 2012, we have installed additional weather observation equipment and developed enhanced forecasting capability to support our staff.
The developments include daily air quality forecasts, high resolution wind and wave modelling for Weymouth and Portland, high resolution ensemble forecasting at 2 km for the whole of the UK and additional weather observing technology at Olympic sites.
Weather plays a big part in determining air quality and air quality forecasts are now available for all 5000 forecast locations on our website. During the Olympics, air quality forecasts will also be available in map format. We’ve also produced a guide to how the air quality index affects health.
Sample daily air quality index map
Currently, our models can generate atmospheric weather data for every 1.5 km over the whole of the UK. However, due to the complexity of the winds around Weymouth and Portland a model will be used which gives nearly 20 times more detail than is usually available.
This ensures the highest detail possible for forecasts for wind and waves in the area during the London 2012 competition. While the output from these specially run models is primarily intended to help Met Office forecasters at the Weymouth and Portland events, it will also be available for the public to see for the duration of the Olympics in the showcase of the high resolution wave model.
Example total significant wave height forecast for Weymouth and Portland
Recently the Met Office introduced cutting edge technology into its operational forecasting to help improve the accuracy of forecasting for ’small-scale’ weather features like thundery showers. For the Olympics, the Met Office is set to take high-resolution forecasting a step further by running multiple forecasts at the same time, a technique called ensemble forecasting.
The high-resolution ensembles will be tested throughout the Olympics before being subject to further research with a view that the facility could be introduced operationally in the future, potentially leaving a legacy that will benefit the UK well after the Olympic and Paralympic Games are over.
Example high resolution ensemble forecast showing chance that temperature will reach 20 C
The Met Office is providing weather forecasts for all Olympic venues during the Games and beyond. As part of the services provided for London 2012, we have installed additional weather observation equipment and developed enhanced forecasting capability to support our staff.
During the Olympic and Paralympic games the Met Office will also be showcasing some cutting-edge weather techniques and technology in its forecasting, as well as providing additional services for the public. To add specialist knowledge and expertise, the Met Office will have 12 forecasters on site across the Olympic venues throughout the games.
For easy access to the latest forecast for each sport and Olympic venue, all the links you need are below.
If you’re lucky enough to be attending an Olympic or Paralympic event, you can keep up to date with the local forecast while you’re there on our mobile applications for iPhone and Android, or on our mobile website.
There have been several articles in the Daily Express over the last couple of days reporting ‘Summer is on the way at last’ with temperatures set to reach 34 Celsius this week and ‘Tropical storms set for Wimbledon’.
These headlines are unfortunately wide of the mark and rather misleading, both by implying that hot and sunny weather is on the way and that Wimbledon will be hit by tropical storms.
Although the Met Office has spoken to the Daily Express, the forecasts featured in the stories have not come from the Met Office, but from an independent forecaster.
The Met Office forecast for this week is for a couple of days of warm, humid and rather cloudy weather across much of the UK, with temperatures reaching 26 or 27 Celsius in any sunshine. For more detail you can find the latest weather forecast on our website.
It is our understanding that the temperatures of 34 deg C referenced in the articles are actually feels like temperatures taken from the website of an independent forecaster rather than actual air temperature. This is not made clear within the article and is potentially misleading.
The inference – through the lack of reference to the original source of the forecasts – that these forecasts have come from the Met Office is very misleading for the public, and potentially damages the reputation not only of the Met Office, but the wider weather forecasting community.
The Met Office is a world leader in meteorological science and our forecasts are recognised the world over as some of the best in the world. We are proud to be trusted to give the best possible guidance on the weather by the public and we report the weather exactly as it is.
With the Jubilee weekend looking likely to see a typical mixture of British weather across the UK you can make sure you always have your latest local forecast to hand with our iPhone and Android apps.
Met Office iPhone and Android apps
The Met Office provides local forecasts for over 5,000 locations across the UK, so with events taking place up and down the country you will always have access to the latest weather forecast.
Latest figures from Comscore show the Met Office’s apps are one of the most accessed apps in the UK. Currently positioned at number 16 in the list, it is accessed more often than apps from Amazon and Groupon.
Since its re-launch in January, more than 2 million people have downloaded the iPhone app. The new Android app has been downloaded by over 340,000 people.
Sarah Weller, Marketing Manager at Mubaloo said: “The latest stats from Comscore highlight how the Met Office’s mobile channel has become a vital source of accurate and up to date weather forecasts for a huge number of people across the UK.”
The iPhone App includes 3 hourly forecasts out to 5 days ahead; UV forecast maps and information on the likelihood of rain. In addition to the iPhone, we also provide an App for Android phones and Smarter Weather for other smart phones.
The current cold weather across Europe is in sharp contrast to the mild, wet and windy conditions across much of Europe through December and January. The cause of the cold conditions is the development of a large ‘blocking’ anticyclone over Scandinavia and north-western Russia. Easterly winds on the southern edge of this system has transported cold continental air westwards, displacing the more usual mild westerly influence from the Atlantic Ocean all the way to the British Isles.
Global land and sea surface temperature anomalies for 1-5 February 2012
A ‘blocking anticyclone’ can be thought of being like a very large boulder in a stream. This boulder acts like a dam, stopping the flow of the stream. In this instance a block stops the more normal westerly flow that brings milder conditions, allowing colder conditions to win out from the east.
The origin and persistence of blocks has been a subject of much research, and unfortunately we are still not absolutely clear on why we see blocks form. What we do know though is that the origins of this large blocked pattern across Europe can be traced back to the appearance of two individual regions of mid-latitude blocking over central Russia and the Bering Sea in mid January. Over the next two weeks, these two regions merged together to form the ’block’ we see now.
The appearance of significant blocking after a long absence is reflected in the strong decline of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, which effectively describes a state in the atmosphere where the flow of westerly winds is either stronger or weaker than usual in the northern hemisphere. It is currently in its negative phase, meaning the westerly flow is less strong than normal. The switch to a negative AO was seen in late January and highlights the dramatic change from generally strong westerly flow to the much less westerly or even easterly blocked state.
Despite the general unpredictability of blocking patterns, there were potential signs of an increased risk of a significant cold weather several weeks ago when the high altitude winds began to weaken in longer-range forecasts. We now understand that there is a clear link between the weakening of these high altitude winds and the surface weather that operates on monthly timescales and in situations like this it can provide a ‘window of opportunity’ for monthly forecasts to warn of increased risk. Based on this understanding, the Met Office 16 to 30 day forecast has reflected the increasing risk of cold conditions since mid January.
Met Office Hadley Centre scientists have investigated and demonstrated a clear stratospheric influence on surface climate during these events, with easterly winds burrowing down through the atmosphere to affect the jet stream and surface climate. The result is a switch from mild westerly Atlantic flow over Europe to easterly winds with an increased risk of cold extremes.
A similar situation occurred at this time of year in 2009 when we had significant snowfall across the UK and other parts of Europe, following a strong breakdown of the high altitude jet. Although only some cold winter spells can be predicted in this way, other recent winters such as 2006 and 2010 have also shown clear examples of the effect.
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