Warm and wet, but October is no thriller

30 10 2014

Early Met Office figures up to the 28th of October show it has been a warm and rather wet month compared to average, but it’s not going to break any records.

The UK mean temperature for the month so far is 11.0C, which is 1.5C above the long-term (1981-2010) average.

Map showing the UK mean temperature for 1-28 Oct compared to the long-term (1981-2010) average.

Map showing the UK mean temperature for 1-28 Oct compared to the long-term (1981-2010) average.

While well above average, that’s well short of the record of 12.2C set in 2001 and would currently rank 11th warmest in our digitised national records dating back to 1910.

Last year’s October (11.2C), and that of 2011 (11.3C), were both warmer than this year’s early figure.

As ever there are regional variations within the UK for this year, with the far north west of the UK hardly above normal while much of England has seen mean temperatures around 2C above normal.

This October continues the theme of above average temperatures for 2014. Nine out of the ten months this year have seen above average mean temperatures, with only August having been below average.

It’s a similar story with UK rainfall in that it is wetter than average, but with no chance of breaking any records.

There has been 148.1mm of rain for the UK up to the 28th of the month, which is 116% of the long-term full-month average (you’d expect about 91% of the average after 28 days in a ‘normal’ month).

This would rank it around mid-table in the records – nowhere near the October record of 194.8mm set in 2000. While the rainfall will go up when the final few days are added, it’s not going to top that.

Again there are regional variations, with some parts of Scotland, the Isle of Man and Cumbria much wetter than average while some parts are slightly drier than average.

Sunshine hasn’t been too remarkable, with figures below average for most areas.

  Mean temp Sunshine Rainfall
1-28 Oct Deg C Diff to avg Hours % of Oct Avg Actual mm % of Oct Avg
UK 11.0 1.5 77.8 84 148.1 116
England 12.2 1.8 86.6 84 100.8 110
Wales 11.4 1.6 73.1 79 160.2 94
Scotland 9.2 1.2 62.6 83 226.7 129
N Ireland 10.3 0.9 86.7 99 124.0 104




Top UK wind speeds as Gonzalo’s remnants felt

21 10 2014

TABLE UPDATED AT 11:50AM

Many parts of the UK are seeing strong winds today as the remnants of ex-tropical storm Gonzalo pass over the north of the country.

Below are the top ten strongest gusts of wind we have recorded so far today. We’ll be updating this through the day with the latest information.

Time Station Area Elevation Max gust (MPH)
0600AM WIGHT: NEEDLES OLD BATTERY ISLE OF WIGHT 80 70
0300AM ABERDARON GWYNEDD 95 70
1000AM ST BEES HEAD CUMBRIA 124 69
0400AM MUMBLES HEAD WEST GLAMORGAN 43 67
1000AM ISLAY: PORT ELLEN ARGYLL 17 66
0300AM CAPEL CURIG GWYNEDD 216 66
1000AM EMLEY MOOR WEST YORKS 267 66
0400AM LAKE VYRNWY POWYS 360 63
0600AM SALSBURGH LANARKSHIRE 277 63
0400AM MACHRIHANISH ARGYLL 10 62

The Met Office has issued a severe weather warning for the winds today – you can see the details of this on our warnings pages.

Winds are expected to be strong through much of the day, and people are advised that there may be some traffic and travel disruption.

Rainfall

Ex-Gonzalo also brought a band of heavy rain across the UK earlier this morning, bringing some notable rainfall totals in places.

The table below shows the top ten UK rainfall totals recorded between 1am and 8am this morning.

Station Area Total (mm)
CLUANIE INN NO 3 ROSS & CROMARTY 38.0
CAPEL CURIG NO 3 GWYNEDD 34.4
ACHNAGART ROSS & CROMARTY 30.6
TYNDRUM NO 3 PERTHSHIRE 27.6
KINLOCHEWE ROSS & CROMARTY 25.8
RESALLACH SUTHERLAND 23.4
SHAP CUMBRIA 21.8
LOCH GLASCARNOCH ROSS & CROMARTY 21.8
MORECAMBE NO 2 LANCASHIRE 20.2
LEVENS HALL CUMBRIA 20.0




Windy weather on the way

19 10 2014

As forecast, Hurricane Gonzalo made landfall over Bermuda on Friday with rain and winds of up to 110 mph causing power cuts, flooding, felled trees and damaged buildings.

The storm has continued in its journey since then, and passed the Canadian island of Newfoundland during Sunday morning.

The remnants of this tropical storm are being caught up in the westerly flow across the Atlantic and will be drawn towards the UK, crossing the country on Monday night and early Tuesday.

By the time Gonzalo crosses the Atlantic, however, it will be a very different system to the hurricane that affected Bermuda.

It will undergo what meteorologists call ‘extra-tropical transition’, which means it loses the warm-core typical of a tropical cyclone and becomes a much more standard Atlantic low pressure system – like we regularly see around the UK at this time of year.

As such the low pressure is expected to produce wind strengths and rainfall amounts which are not unusual over the British Isles during the autumn and winter months.

Whilst there is good confidence that this system will cross the UK on Monday night and Tuesday morning, there is still something to play for in pinning down the exact location of the strongest winds.

The Met Office has issued a weather warning for wind for much of the UK for Tuesday, particularly since the strongest winds look to coincide with rush hour for some locations, leading to possible travel disruption.

You  can see details of what to expect in the warnings page on our website. You can stay up to date with all the latest for the windy weather and what to expect for the rest of the week with our forecasts and warnings.





How will activity in the Atlantic affect UK weather?

15 10 2014

There’s lots of activity going on in the Atlantic at the moment – but how will it affect the UK?

Currently there is a big area of low pressure covering a large part of the Atlantic between North America and the UK.

While it is fairly large in its size, it’s not particularly intense, powerful or unusual.

Forecast chart for 1pm on Wednesday 15 October 2014, showing large area of low pressure in the Atlantic.

Forecast chart for 1pm BST on Wednesday 15 October 2014, showing a large area of low pressure in the Atlantic.

This means that – while it may look impressive on the charts – it’s not going to bring anything out of the ordinary for the UK over the next few days.

It will, however, be generally unsettled across many parts through Friday and the weekend, as the low pressure drives a weather system across the UK.

This will bring strong winds, with gusts of up to 50mph in the most exposed parts of the west, and rain in places. However, some parts will enjoy periods of drier and brighter weather.

Tied up in the general Atlantic circulation is an area of warm air which was originally part of tropical storm Fay.

This will bring very mild air across parts of the country, with daytime temperatures possibly reaching around 20C across southeastern areas by Saturday, well above the October average for the region of 15C.

While it will be very mild, it may not feel particularly warm given the windy and often wet conditions. The unsettled weather is expected to be fairly standard for the middle part of October.

Forecast track of Gonzalo from the US National Hurricane Center.

Over the other side of the Atlantic near Bermuda, Hurricane Gonzalo is currently expected to track north and then east across the ocean over the coming days.

There is large uncertainty about the potential track of this storm, with some models suggesting that the remnants could move across the UK whilst others show them staying away from our shores.

If the ex-tropical storm does move across the country, some parts could see gales and heavy rain, but currently extreme conditions look unlikely.

As ever, we’ll keep a close eye on developments over the next few days and keep everyone up to date if it looks like there is any sign of severe weather heading for the UK.





Arctic sea ice reaches minimum extent for 2014

23 09 2014

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its minimum for 2014, according to preliminary figures from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in the US.

The extent dropped to 5.02 million square kilometres (1.94 million square miles) on 17 September, making it the 6th lowest extent observed since satellite observations became available in 1979.

This year’s minimum is above the 2012 record low extent of 3.41 million square kilometres (1.32 million square miles), but still below the long term (1981-2010) average of 6.22 million square kilometres (2.4 million square miles).

Graph shows Arctic sea ice extent at 17 September 2014 along with daily ice extent for four previous years. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Centre

Graph shows Arctic sea ice extent at 17 September 2014 along with daily ice extent for four previous years. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center

There is a lot of year to year variability in the Arctic ice extent, as it depends on the Arctic weather.

As the ice cover thins we expect the variability in cover to increase as larger regions of the Arctic become vulnerable to being blown by the wind or melting away completely over the summer.

Overall, the long term trend in ice cover remains downward, as illustrated by the below plot of August ice extents.

Earlier this month in the Laptev Sea, a small portion of the ice edge was within 5 degrees of the North Pole – this is the most northerly position that the ice edge has reached in this region since satellite observations began.

This year the Northern Sea Route has opened to shipping for the seventh year in succession, but the North-West Passage through the Canadian Archipelago remains blocked by ice – emphasising how Arctic summer sea-ice cover depends on the prevailing weather patterns.

The exact date on which the minimum ice extent occurs varies from year to year, depending on the weather conditions along the ice edge. The 1981-2010 average is 15th September, and the latest date so far in the records has been 23rd September.

Graph shows August Arctic sea ice extent for each year since records began as a % difference to the long-term (1981-2010) average for the month. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Graph shows August Arctic sea ice extent for each year since records began as a % difference to the long-term (1981-2010) average for the month. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Future of Arctic sea ice

Based on projections from current climate models, a plausible date for the earliest ice free (defined as extent less than 1 million square kilometres) summer in the Arctic would be 2025-2030.

Work continues to improve our understanding of the processes driving the ice decline and how they are represented in climate models. This may lead to revised projections of the date for an ice-free summer in the Arctic.

Impacts on UK weather

Changes in the Arctic ice cover have the potential to influence the weather further afield, by changing atmospheric circulation pattern outside the Arctic.

There is some evidence that low ice cover at the end of the summer can drive easterly winds across Europe, particularly in winter, potentially resulting in anomalously cold conditions.

The relative importance of sea ice conditions and other factors in generating cold conditions in the UK is an active research area for the Met office.





Volcanic activity in Iceland continues

29 08 2014

The Icelandic Met Office (IMO), who monitor volcanoes in the country, have been reporting increased seismic activity around the Barðarbunga volcano in Iceland since 16 August.

That activity continued with a small fissure eruption being observed some distance from the volcano in the early hours of Friday (29 August). This led to the IMO raising their ‘aviation colour code’ for the Barðarbunga volcano to Red for a few hours.

This has now been lowered back to Orange after further study of the area revealed the eruption is small and activity is decreasing, with no ash emitted. Under the IMO’s codes, Orange means ‘Volcano shows heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption’.

The volcanic activity has been variable, with the IMO colour code being briefly Red for Barðarbunga on 29 August and also on 23 August before being downgraded back to Orange.

Another nearby volcano, Askja, is currently Yellow on the IMO code, which means ‘Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background level’.

The IMO will be continually monitoring the region for any further changes – you can see their latest updates on their website.

The Met Office, as one of nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC) around the world, will continue to keep in close contact with the IMO. The Met Office has responsibility for forecasting the dispersion of ash originating from volcanic eruptions in the North East Atlantic, primarily in Iceland.

The volcanic ash forecasts are used by airlines, the CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) and NATS (National Air Traffic Services) in the UK, as well as aviation organisations around the world, to make decisions on airspace flight management.

Advice will be issued once ash is released into the atmosphere by an eruption and this can be seen on the Met Office’s VAAC pages on our website.

Because the dispersal of any ash would heavily depend on the type and extent of eruption, as well as the prevailing weather and atmospheric conditions at the time, we can’t provide any speculation on where ash may go. If an eruption occurs that releases ash our advice on potential dispersal will be available on our website.

The Met Office will continue to stay in regular contact with the IMO and will keep the CAA fully informed as the UK’s aviation regulator as well as other stakeholders in the UK and abroad.





How will ex-Hurricane Cristobal affect the UK’s weather next week?

27 08 2014

The third tropical storm in the North Atlantic, Cristobal, has been making some headlines about its potential positive impact on us here in the UK – so what’s actually happening?

Cristobal is currently categorised as a hurricane and is currently between Bermuda and northeast Florida in the western Atlantic.

The storm is forecast to move north-east across the Atlantic over the coming days, changing to an ex-hurricane as it moves away from the warmer waters where it formed.

However, unlike ex-Hurricane Bertha which moved straight to the UK and brought strong winds and heavy rain to much of the British Isles, ex-Hurricane Cristobal is set on a very different track.

Instead it is forecast to move towards Iceland, staying well away from the UK as you can see from the forecast pressure chart below.

Forecast pressure chart for 1pm on Sunday 31 August shows ex-Cristobal heading towards Iceland.

Forecast pressure chart for 1pm on Sunday 31 August shows ex-Cristobal heading towards Iceland.

As Cristobal tracks to the north-west of the UK it could bring stronger winds across northwestern parts of Scotland for a time and there will also be some rain moving across the UK on Sunday into Monday.

It will have a longer lasting and more positive impact on our weather, however, as the track of the storm will result in an area of high pressure building further to the south and over the UK.

This high pressure will be maintained through next week as the jet stream moves to the north of the UK, bringing settled conditions across the country.

At this time of the year, high pressure generally brings dry and fine weather with some spells of sunshine, and that’s what we expect to see from around Tuesday next week.

With high pressure, daytime temperatures could reach the low to mid 20’s Celsius in places. This warmth will be especially noticeable following the cool conditions of late.

This spell of warm weather, however, doesn’t fit the definition of an Indian Summer – which you can read about on our website.





Severe weather to affect western France

12 08 2014

A spell of severe weather is expected to affect parts of France overnight and through Wednesday morning as an area of low pressure makes its way in from the Bay of Biscay.

The  area of low pressure highlighted in the satellite image above is expected to deepen and develop before affecting parts of France this evening and overnight.

Pressure chart for 1 am Wednesday 13 August

Pressure chart for 1 am Wednesday 13 August

Forecast rainfall for 1 am Wednesday 13 August

Forecast rainfall for 1 am Wednesday 13 August

 

 

 

This brings the risk of severe thunderstorms across western, then southern France overnight and during Wednesday morning. This will bring the potential for flash flooding and will give squally winds, with disruption to local infrastructure and to holiday makers in the region. Very strong winds and high seas are also likely for a time overnight along the western coastline of France. Meteo France currently has severe weather warnings in force.

 

This area of wind and rain should then move quickly across Switzerland and southern Germany during Wednesday afternoon.





Is Tropical Storm Bertha heading for the UK?

4 08 2014

Update: The latest update about the whether ex-Bertha will affect the UK can be found in our news release

A Tropical Storm called Bertha, which is currently in situated off the east coast of the US, could head towards Europe over the next week – so what’s the outlook?

Forecast tracks for Bertha, which was a hurricane but has now been downgraded to a tropical storm, suggest it will head north – staying offshore from the eastern coast of the US before turning to track east across the Atlantic.

Forecast track for Bertha from StormTracker shows it heading north off the east coast of the US before turning east.

Forecast track for Bertha from StormTracker shows it heading north off the east coast of the US before turning east.

While all forecast models suggest the storm will head in the general direction of UK and continental Europe, there remains a lot of uncertainty about exactly what it will do.

One certainty is that as the storm heads north away from the very warm seas which drive its power, it will lose strength and become what’s known as an extra-tropical storm – so we won’t be seeing a ‘hurricane in Europe’, but there is a chance we could see a fairly active summer storm.

The development of hurricanes and extra tropical storms can present complexities for meteorologists, and Bertha is a good example of that.

Here at the Met Office we use several world-leading forecast models as well as our own, and this gives an indication of how certain a forecast is. If all the models agree, there’s higher certainty, if they diverge, we know the atmosphere is finely balanced and there are several possible outcomes.

Satellite image of Bertha in the Caribbean taken at 11.45am on Monday, 4 August 2014 (Picture from NOAA)

Satellite image of Bertha in the Caribbean taken at 11.45am on Monday, 4 August 2014 (Picture from NOAA)

In the case of Bertha each of the models we use gives a very different picture of what the storm will do. This ranges from Bertha heading towards France as a weak feature which will completely miss the UK, to it arriving as a fairly active summer storm.

In terms of timing, there’s also a spread of possibilities – but it looks likely that the earliest Bertha would affect the UK would be on Sunday or into the start of next week.

As time progresses, different models normally come more in to line with each other and uncertainty decreases. The Met Office will be keeping an eye on how this situation develops over the next few days to give everyone in the UK the best advice on what Bertha is likely to do.

Given the time of year and the potential heavy rain, strong winds and large waves Bertha could bring if it does head to the UK, we’d advise everyone to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings from the Met Office over the next few days.

You can also see the forecast track for Bertha and other tropical storms on our StormTracker pages.

NOTE – story updated to reflect Bertha’s status after being downgraded to a tropical storm.





Thunderstorms bring intense rainfall to parts of England

28 07 2014

This morning has seen some intense downpours across parts of south east England.

They developed across parts of East Anglia in the early hours of the morning, with further areas of heavy showers across Sussex, Surrey, Kent and the south of London following later.

The showers were very heavy in places with thunderstorms, hail, and torrential rain reported, giving high rainfall totals and localised flooding in some areas.

The high rainfall totals were caused by an area of low pressure and a plume of warm air that moved in from the near continent accompanied by light winds, meaning that the showers were slow moving.

Several spots have seen more than half of their average monthly rainfall for the whole of July in just one hour.

Below you can see some of the highest recorded hourly rainfall totals from Environment Agency rain gauges through the morning of Monday 28th July 2014:

Great Dunmow Essex 43 mm (4am to 5am)
Isfield Sussex 37 mm (8.30am to 9:30am)
Ardingly Sussex 35 mm (8.30am to 9:30am)
Santon Downham Suffolk 33mm (4am to 5am)
Weirwood Sussex 28 mm (9am to 10am)
Northolt London 20mm (7am to 8am)

 

The band of showery rain is now easing, but a yellow warning for rainfall remains in place for the south east of the UK as the risk of seeing some further isolated downpours remains.

In addition, the far south east of England could see further persistent and perhaps locally heavy rain later today and overnight, with parts of Kent and Sussex most at risk. Conditions across all areas should then improve through tomorrow.








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