Turning even warmer for parts of Britain

15 09 2014

After a disappointingly cool and wet August, September has been largely fine, with plenty of warm sunshine for many areas.

This has been thanks to an area of high pressure centred across the UK, which generally brings us dry and sunny weather.

Through this week, the high pressure will slowly move towards Scandinavia, with low pressure moving north towards southern parts of Britain.

This will introduce some isolated but potentially heavy showers in place. Cloud from the North Sea will also keep some eastern areas of the UK cloudier and cooler.

However, this low pressure will also drag in warm winds from the Mediterranean and France, causing a rise in temperatures across parts of the country.

Where we see cloud breaks and further sunshine through this week, we could see temperatures across parts of the south and west reach the mid 20s Celsius by day.

This is considerably warmer than the average of around 17C that we would normally expect across the UK for mid-September.

There has been some press interest about what effect Hurricane Edouard, currently in the Western Atlantic, will have on the UK’s weather.

It’s still early days, but computer models currently suggest the storm will move into the Mid Atlantic and then track south towards the Azores, well away from the UK.

This will mean that the British Isles will not be directly affected by the storm, and there is a hint that the largely fine weather will continue into the weekend to give us further settled weather.





Is Tropical Storm Bertha heading for the UK?

4 08 2014

Update: The latest update about the whether ex-Bertha will affect the UK can be found in our news release

A Tropical Storm called Bertha, which is currently in situated off the east coast of the US, could head towards Europe over the next week – so what’s the outlook?

Forecast tracks for Bertha, which was a hurricane but has now been downgraded to a tropical storm, suggest it will head north – staying offshore from the eastern coast of the US before turning to track east across the Atlantic.

Forecast track for Bertha from StormTracker shows it heading north off the east coast of the US before turning east.

Forecast track for Bertha from StormTracker shows it heading north off the east coast of the US before turning east.

While all forecast models suggest the storm will head in the general direction of UK and continental Europe, there remains a lot of uncertainty about exactly what it will do.

One certainty is that as the storm heads north away from the very warm seas which drive its power, it will lose strength and become what’s known as an extra-tropical storm – so we won’t be seeing a ‘hurricane in Europe’, but there is a chance we could see a fairly active summer storm.

The development of hurricanes and extra tropical storms can present complexities for meteorologists, and Bertha is a good example of that.

Here at the Met Office we use several world-leading forecast models as well as our own, and this gives an indication of how certain a forecast is. If all the models agree, there’s higher certainty, if they diverge, we know the atmosphere is finely balanced and there are several possible outcomes.

Satellite image of Bertha in the Caribbean taken at 11.45am on Monday, 4 August 2014 (Picture from NOAA)

Satellite image of Bertha in the Caribbean taken at 11.45am on Monday, 4 August 2014 (Picture from NOAA)

In the case of Bertha each of the models we use gives a very different picture of what the storm will do. This ranges from Bertha heading towards France as a weak feature which will completely miss the UK, to it arriving as a fairly active summer storm.

In terms of timing, there’s also a spread of possibilities – but it looks likely that the earliest Bertha would affect the UK would be on Sunday or into the start of next week.

As time progresses, different models normally come more in to line with each other and uncertainty decreases. The Met Office will be keeping an eye on how this situation develops over the next few days to give everyone in the UK the best advice on what Bertha is likely to do.

Given the time of year and the potential heavy rain, strong winds and large waves Bertha could bring if it does head to the UK, we’d advise everyone to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings from the Met Office over the next few days.

You can also see the forecast track for Bertha and other tropical storms on our StormTracker pages.

NOTE – story updated to reflect Bertha’s status after being downgraded to a tropical storm.





Unsettled weather to come – but no repeat of ‘St Jude’ in sight

29 10 2013

There have been a few mentions in today’s media of another storm coming in for this weekend – with the Daily Express suggesting that a ‘new deadly storm’ is on the way.

It’s fair to say we are expecting a spell of unsettled autumnal weather over the next week, with some strong winds and heavy rain possible – but comparisons with the ‘St Jude’s Day storm’ (as some in the media have called it) are wide of the mark.

Currently forecasts suggest that we will see several low pressure systems affecting the country over the next week – which is a fairly typical picture for UK weather at this time of year.

These could bring gale force winds at times to some areas, but we don’t expect gusts to be anything like the exceptionally strong winds we saw on Monday. In fact, the winds are more likely to be similar to those we saw during the day last Sunday – the day before the big storm.

Of course, even gale force gusts do bring some risks and the Met Office will closely watch developments to assess any impacts.

The low pressure systems coming through over the next week are likely to lead to some rough seas and big waves around some coasts, as well as some heavy rain.

The Met Office, Environment Agency and Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) will be working together to monitor the risk of any impacts from these over the next few days.

Given the outlook for unsettled weather, we’d advise people to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings from the Met Office and to sign up to receive free flood warnings from the Environment Agency and SEPA website.





No heat wave just sunshine and showers this weekend

21 08 2013

You may have seen more headlines in the newspapers today talking about a heat wave heading our way for the weekend. Once again these stories seem a little over-hyped.

The Met Office forecast for the rest of the week does, indeed, show rising temperatures, peaking in the high 20’s Celsius in south-east England on Friday. Temperatures are then expected to return to around average during the course of the weekend, so not a heat wave.

The weather is expected to turn more unsettled from the west during Friday and Saturday, with the risk of some heavy, showery rain around. The rest of the weekend should see some good dry and sunny spells of weather at times, but the risk of occasional showers remains and there is some uncertainty about which areas will see the showers and when.

The uncertainty this weekend comes from complex weather patterns developing over the Atlantic and these will ultimately determine where the showers will be from day to day. For those who like technical speak, it’s called a trough disruption and forecasting this phenomenon continues to be a major challenge to both computer models and humans alike.

So the best thing to do is keep up to date with the forecast to get the latest on how things are expected to develop over this weekend.








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